St. Lucia
vs
Barbados
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barbados
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.78.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
St. Lucia vs Barbados overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St. Lucia vs Barbados
| Probability | St. Lucia | Draw | Barbados |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.9% | 21.0% | 50.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.9% | 21.0% | 50.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Barbados
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.78.
St. Lucia vs Barbados match preview
St. Lucia faces Barbados in the CONCACAF Nations League with St. Lucia holding a 29% probability of winning, while Barbados is favored at 50%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring match, with over 2.5 goals predicted at 78% and both teams to score at 76%.
In terms of recent form, St. Lucia has recorded three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Barbados has secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same timeframe. The expected goals for St. Lucia stand at 1.78, compared to 2.34 for Barbados. The head-to-head record shows one win for each side in their last two encounters, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St. Lucia and Barbados expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.13
St. Lucia and Barbados attack and defence ratings
St. Lucia
Barbados
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League B - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
St. Lucia vs Barbados markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barbados | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Lucia | 28.9% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Barbados | 50.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.9% |
| No | 24.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barbados win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 50.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
St. Lucia vs Barbados stats
St. Lucia vs Barbados head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Barbados | St. Lucia | CONCACAF Nations League | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-10 | St. Lucia | Barbados | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.