FC Thun
vs
Lech Poznan
2 – 2 Full time
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Thun vs Lech Poznan
| Probability | FC Thun | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.8% | 9.4% | 83.7% |
| Market | 34.8% | 24.3% | 40.9% |
| Final | 27.8% | 20.6% | 51.6% |
| Edge | -28.0% | -14.9% | +42.8% |
Why Lech Poznan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.04 vs 1.33.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lech Poznan below the model: +42.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Thun and Lech Poznan expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.37
FC Thun and Lech Poznan attack and defence ratings
FC Thun
Lech Poznan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan: result vs prediction
FC Thun 2 – 2 Lech Poznan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Play-offs fixtures
- Kairat Almaty vs Anderlecht — team news & stats
- Jagiellonia vs FC Iberia 1999
- Mjallby AIF v Red Bull Salzburg — match page
- Lech Poznan vs FC Thun — team news & stats
- Beşiktaş vs Kauno Žalgiris
- Universitatea Craiova v Ararat-Armenia — match page
- Trabzonspor vs Ferencvarosi TC — team news & stats
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom
Before and after this match
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 51.6% | 1.94 | +42.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90.6% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Thun | 27.8% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| Lech Poznan | 51.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 9.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% |
| No | 27.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 69.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.9% | |
| Loss | 16.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-4 | 6.9% |
| 1-3 | 6.7% | |
| 1-5 | 5.6% |
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan stats
FC Thun and Lech Poznan recent form
| FC Thun |
LWLLWL |
| Lech Poznan |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Lech Poznan | FC Thun | UEFA Europa League | 7-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Thun vs Lech Poznan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 24.3%, away 40.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 4.08 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 4.00 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.70 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.95 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.69 | 3.94 | 2.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 4.08 | 2.27 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 3.28 | 2.31 |
| Superbet | 2.72 | 3.85 | 2.37 |
| Unibet | 2.75 | 3.75 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .