Patronato
vs
Atlanta
2 – 0 Full time
Patronato vs Atlanta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Patronato vs Atlanta
| Probability | Patronato | Draw | Atlanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.0% | 24.1% | 27.9% |
| Market | 39.7% | 32.4% | 27.9% |
| Final | 41.8% | 30.3% | 27.9% |
| Edge | +8.3% | -8.3% | -0.0% |
Why Patronato
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.43.
- The market prices Patronato below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Patronato and Atlanta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Patronato and Atlanta attack and defence ratings
Patronato
Atlanta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Patronato vs Atlanta: result vs prediction
Patronato 2 – 0 Atlanta
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Patronato vs Atlanta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patronato | 41.8% | 2.39 | +8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Patronato | 41.8% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Atlanta | 27.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% |
| No | 34.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Patronato win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 6.9% |
Patronato vs Atlanta stats
Patronato and Atlanta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Patronato and Atlanta going into this match
Patronato record
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlanta record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Patronato vs Atlanta head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Atlanta | Patronato | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Patronato | Atlanta | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-26 | Atlanta | Patronato | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2012-03-03 | Atlanta | Patronato | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2011-09-04 | Patronato | Atlanta | Primera Nacional | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Patronato vs Atlanta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.7%, draw 32.4%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 2.84 | 3.23 |
| 888Sport | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.25 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 2.88 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 2.77 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.31 | 2.90 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.26 | 2.84 | 3.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 2.97 | 3.38 |
| SBO | 2.17 | 2.72 | 3.11 |
| Superbet | 2.32 | 2.87 | 3.45 |
| Unibet | 2.50 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .