Sturm Graz
vs
Austria Lustenau
1 – 1 Full time
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau
| Probability | Sturm Graz | Draw | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 28.4% | 30.0% |
| Market | 68.8% | 18.7% | 12.5% |
| Final | 62.0% | 21.1% | 16.9% |
| Edge | -27.1% | +9.6% | +17.5% |
Why Sturm Graz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.81.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.16
Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau attack and defence ratings
Sturm Graz
Austria Lustenau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau: result vs prediction
Sturm Graz 1 – 1 Austria Lustenau
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 62.0% | 1.61 | -27.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 62.0% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| Austria Lustenau | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau stats
Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau recent form
| Sturm Graz |
WLWLDW |
| Austria Lustenau |
WLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau going into this match
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.9%, draw 18.7%, away 12.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.55 |
| 888Sport | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.38 | 4.75 | 7.40 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.39 | 8.02 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.69 | 7.05 |
| Superbet | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| Unibet | 1.32 | 4.90 | 7.50 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.80 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .