Rapid Vienna
vs
Sturm Graz
3 – 1 Full time
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz
| Probability | Rapid Vienna | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.5% | 26.9% | 22.6% |
| Market | 42.8% | 25.5% | 31.7% |
| Final | 44.7% | 25.8% | 29.4% |
| Edge | +7.7% | +1.4% | -9.1% |
Why Rapid Vienna
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rapid Vienna below the model: +7.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz attack and defence ratings
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz: result vs prediction
Rapid Vienna 3 – 1 Sturm Graz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rapid Vienna | 44.7% | 2.24 | +7.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rapid Vienna | 44.7% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Sturm Graz | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.2% |
| No | 46.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rapid Vienna win | 27.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz stats
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz recent form
| Rapid Vienna |
DDWWWW |
| Sturm Graz |
DWLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz going into this match
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sturm Graz | Rapid Vienna | Austria Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Rapid Vienna | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Rapid Vienna | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Sturm Graz | Rapid Vienna | Austria Bundesliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 25.5%, away 31.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.15 | 3.65 | 3.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 3.74 | 2.94 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.65 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.74 | 2.93 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.91 | 2.96 |
| SBO | 2.10 | 3.25 | 2.73 |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .