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Austria Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 5

TSV Hartberg vs Ried

3 – 2 Full time

Profertil Arena Hartberg, HartbergReferee: Arnes Talic, Austria

TSV Hartberg 33%
Draw 28%
Ried 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

TSV Hartberg vs Ried overview

Garuda Lions analysis: TSV Hartberg vs Ried

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTSV HartbergDrawRied
Model35.6%28.2%36.2%
Market32.3%27.4%40.3%
Final33.1%27.6%39.3%
Edge+3.3%+0.8%-4.1%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

TSV Hartberg ↓ / Ried → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

TSV Hartberg and Ried expected goals

TSV Hartberg 1.35
Ried 1.37

Total expected goals: 2.72

TSV Hartberg and Ried attack and defence ratings

TSV Hartberg

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Ried

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

TSV Hartberg vs Ried: result vs prediction

TSV Hartberg 3 – 2 Ried

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Austria Bundesliga

Before and after this match

TSV Hartberg vs Ried markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ried 39.3% 2.55 -4.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.0% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.4% 1.77 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.4% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.6% 1.57 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2TSV Hartberg33.1%
Draw27.6%
Ried39.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%
Both teams to scoreYes56.4%
No43.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.7%
12 (either side)72.4%
X2 (draw or away)66.9%
Handicap -1Ried win17.2%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss63.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-28.3%
2-18.2%

TSV Hartberg vs Ried stats

TSV Hartberg and Ried recent form

newest first
TSV Hartberg WLLLWW
Ried WLLDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

TSV Hartberg and Ried going into this match

league record before kick-off

TSV Hartberg record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Ried record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

TSV Hartberg vs Ried head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

2TSV Hartberg wins 0Draws 0Ried wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-22TSV HartbergRiedAustria Bundesliga2-0
2025-09-14RiedTSV HartbergAustria Bundesliga0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

TSV Hartberg vs Ried odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 27.4%, away 40.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.90 3.40 2.30
1xBet 2.87 3.44 2.34
Bet365 2.88 3.40 2.35
BetVictor 2.90 3.30 2.30
Betano 2.77 3.40 2.40
Betfair 2.88 3.40 2.30
Dafabet 2.90 3.45 2.40
Marathonbet 2.86 3.44 2.32
Pinnacle 2.89 3.54 2.38
SBO 2.67 3.02 2.25
Unibet 2.95 3.40 2.30
William Hill 2.88 3.30 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▼ -0.21
X 3.40 ▼ -0.08
2 2.31 ▲ +0.11

10 snapshots recorded, from .