Garuda Lions
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Challenger Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 2

Dender vs Beerschot VA

2 – 0 Full time

Dender Football Complex, DenderleeuwReferee: A. Letellier

Dender 31%
Draw 26%
Beerschot VA 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Dender vs Beerschot VA overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dender vs Beerschot VA

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDenderDrawBeerschot VA
Model16.5%21.3%62.2%
Market35.5%27.3%37.3%
Final30.7%25.8%43.5%
Edge-18.9%-6.0%+24.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Beerschot VA

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Beerschot VA below the model: +24.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dender ↓ / Beerschot VA → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 9% 7% 6% 1 10% 10% 7% 7% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Dender and Beerschot VA expected goals

Dender 1.08
Beerschot VA 2.22

Total expected goals: 3.30

Dender and Beerschot VA attack and defence ratings

Dender

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Beerschot VA

Attack 1.38 +38%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dender vs Beerschot VA: result vs prediction

Dender 2 – 0 Beerschot VA

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Challenger Pro League

Before and after this match

Dender vs Beerschot VA markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Beerschot VA 43.5% 2.30 +24.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.0% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.8% 1.67 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.2% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Beerschot VA win 40.3% 2.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dender30.7%
Draw25.8%
Beerschot VA43.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%
Both teams to scoreYes59.8%
No40.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.5%
12 (either side)74.2%
X2 (draw or away)69.3%
Handicap -1Beerschot VA win40.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.9%
Loss37.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.8%
1-19.7%
0-29.1%

Dender vs Beerschot VA stats

Dender and Beerschot VA recent form

newest first
Dender LDLLWL
Beerschot VA WLLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dender vs Beerschot VA head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Dender vs Beerschot VA odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.5%, draw 27.3%, away 37.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.57 3.38 2.35
Bet365 2.55 3.30 2.38
BetVictor 2.63 3.40 2.45
Betano 2.65 3.30 2.50
Betfair 2.55 3.40 2.40
Dafabet 2.70 3.45 2.55
Marathonbet 2.57 3.38 2.35
Pinnacle 2.69 3.72 2.44
SBO 2.24 3.01 2.56
Superbet 2.65 3.30 2.50
Unibet 2.48 3.25 2.55
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.30

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.