Garuda Lions
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Challenger Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Liège vs Dender

1 – 2 Full time

Stade de RocourtReferee: R. Calluy

Liège 36%
Draw 27%
Dender 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Liège vs Dender overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Liège vs Dender

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLiègeDrawDender
Model40.3%27.8%31.9%
Market34.5%27.4%38.2%
Final35.9%27.5%36.6%
Edge+5.9%+0.4%-6.3%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Liège ↓ / Dender → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 8% 13% 8% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 8%

Liège and Dender expected goals

Liège 1.46
Dender 1.29

Total expected goals: 2.75

Liège and Dender attack and defence ratings

Liège

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Dender

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Liège vs Dender: result vs prediction

Liège 1 – 2 Dender

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Challenger Pro League

Before and after this match

Liège vs Dender markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dender 36.6% 2.73 -6.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.0% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.9% 1.76 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.5% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.8% 1.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Liège35.9%
Draw27.5%
Dender36.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%
Both teams to scoreYes56.9%
No43.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.4%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)64.1%
Handicap -1Dender win14.5%
Push (exactly one goal)17.7%
Loss67.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
2-18.8%
1-08.1%

Liège vs Dender stats

Liège and Dender recent form

newest first
Liège WLLLWW
Dender WLDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Liège vs Dender head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Liège wins 3Draws 2Dender wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-12-15DenderLiègeChallenger Pro League0-0
2023-08-12LiègeDenderChallenger Pro League0-1
2022-05-22LiègeDenderFirst Amateur Division1-0
2022-05-11DenderLiègeFirst Amateur Division2-0
2022-03-27LiègeDenderFirst Amateur Division3-0
2021-10-16DenderLiègeFirst Amateur Division0-0
2019-12-14DenderLiègeFirst Amateur Division1-1
2019-09-15LiègeDenderFirst Amateur Division4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Liège vs Dender odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 27.4%, away 38.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.70 3.30 2.40
1xBet 2.62 3.38 2.31
Bet365 2.60 3.30 2.30
Betano 2.70 3.35 2.42
Betfair 2.60 3.40 2.38
Dafabet 2.75 3.50 2.48
Marathonbet 2.62 3.38 2.31
Pinnacle 2.77 3.41 2.43
SBO 2.52 3.02 2.26
Superbet 2.70 3.35 2.42
Unibet 2.55 3.30 2.43
William Hill 2.70 3.10 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.66 —
X 3.35 —
2 2.40 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .