Fuerte San Francisco
vs
Alianza
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alianza
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza
| Probability | Fuerte San Francisco | Draw | Alianza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.2% | 27.7% | 41.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.2% | 27.7% | 41.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza match preview
Fuerte San Francisco faces Alianza in an upcoming Primera Division match, with the model giving Alianza a 41% chance of victory compared to Fuerte San Francisco's 31% and a 28% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 57%, while there is a 52% chance that the match will feature over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Fuerte San Francisco has recorded two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Alianza has struggled with three losses and two draws in the same period. Historically, Alianza has dominated their last ten encounters, winning eight times, with Fuerte San Francisco securing just one victory and one draw. The expected goals are 1.27 for Fuerte San Francisco and 1.49 for Alianza, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fuerte San Francisco and Alianza expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Fuerte San Francisco and Alianza attack and defence ratings
Fuerte San Francisco
Alianza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fuerte San Francisco | 31.2% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Alianza | 41.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% |
| No | 43.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza stats
Fuerte San Francisco and Alianza recent form
| Fuerte San Francisco |
DLLLWD |
| Alianza |
LLWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fuerte San Francisco and Alianza season so far
Fuerte San Francisco record
- They have won 2 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
Alianza record
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 2-2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-16 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-14 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-15 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Fuerte San Francisco | Alianza | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-27 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-01 | Alianza | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.