Alianza
vs
Águila
Garuda Lions Prediction: Águila
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.23.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Alianza vs Águila overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alianza vs Águila
| Probability | Alianza | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.0% | 23.3% | 54.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.0% | 23.3% | 54.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Águila
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Alianza vs Águila match preview
In the upcoming match between Alianza and Águila, the probabilities suggest a strong advantage for Águila, with a 55% chance of winning compared to Alianza's 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals indicate Alianza at 1.23 and Águila at 2.02, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter, as evidenced by a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score.
Recent form shows Alianza struggling with two losses in their last three matches, while Águila is in excellent shape, having won their last six games. In their last ten head-to-head encounters, Alianza has secured three wins, while Águila has five victories, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alianza and Águila expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Alianza and Águila attack and defence ratings
Alianza
Águila
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alianza vs Águila markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 22.0% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Águila | 54.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% |
| No | 37.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win | 33.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 45.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.9% |
Alianza vs Águila stats
Alianza and Águila recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alianza and Águila season so far
Alianza record
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
Águila record
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Alianza vs Águila head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Águila | Alianza | Primera Division | 2-2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Alianza | Águila | Primera Division | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Águila | Alianza | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Alianza | Águila | Primera Division | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-19 | Águila | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Alianza | Águila | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Águila | Alianza | Primera Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-13 | Alianza | Águila | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-16 | Águila | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Alianza | Águila | Primera Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.