Firpo
vs
Alianza
Garuda Lions Prediction: Firpo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Firpo vs Alianza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Firpo vs Alianza
| Probability | Firpo | Draw | Alianza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.9% | 27.1% | 19.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.9% | 27.1% | 19.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Firpo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Firpo vs Alianza match preview
Firpo enters the match against Alianza with a solid recent form, having secured three wins and two draws in their last six games. Their expected goals stand at 2.18, suggesting a strong offensive capability. In contrast, Alianza's recent performance has been less impressive, with only one win in their last six matches, leading to an expected goals figure of 1.08.
In their last ten encounters, Firpo has achieved two wins, while Alianza has three, with five matches ending in draws. The model indicates a 54% probability of a Firpo victory, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0. Additionally, there is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Firpo and Alianza expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Firpo and Alianza attack and defence ratings
Firpo
Alianza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Firpo vs Alianza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 53.9% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Alianza | 19.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.8% |
| No | 52.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win | 36.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.9% |
Firpo vs Alianza stats
Firpo and Alianza recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Firpo and Alianza season so far
Firpo record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.
Alianza record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
Firpo vs Alianza head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 2-3 |
| 2025-12-21 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-5 |
| 2025-07-27 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 3-3 |
| 2025-04-10 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-13 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-13 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-26 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.