Firpo
vs
Alianza
2 – 0 Full time
| 31′ | M. E. Gonzalez | ||
| 34′ | M. Mercado | ||
| 68′ | N. Orellana | ||
| 68′ | N. Orellana |
Firpo vs Alianza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Firpo vs Alianza
| Probability | Firpo | Draw | Alianza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 28.2% | 20.6% |
| Market | 53.5% | 26.1% | 20.4% |
| Final | 52.9% | 26.6% | 20.5% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.5% | +0.0% |
Why Firpo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Firpo and Alianza expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Firpo and Alianza attack and defence ratings
Firpo
Alianza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Firpo vs Alianza: result vs prediction
Firpo 2 – 0 Alianza
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Firpo vs Alianza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 52.9% | 1.89 | -0.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 52.9% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Alianza | 20.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.3% |
| No | 52.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 2-0 | 10.5% |
Firpo vs Alianza stats
Firpo and Alianza recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Firpo and Alianza going into this match
Firpo record
- They have won 9 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 17 matches.
Alianza record
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
Firpo vs Alianza head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-22 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-25 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 2-3 |
| 2025-12-21 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-5 |
| 2025-07-27 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 3-3 |
| 2025-04-10 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-13 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-13 | Firpo | Alianza | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-26 | Alianza | Firpo | Primera Division | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Firpo vs Alianza odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.5%, draw 26.1%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.44 | 4.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.13 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.45 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 3.55 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.44 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.61 | 4.78 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .