Inca Aruba
vs
Isidro Metapán
Garuda Lions Prediction: Isidro Metapán
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.82.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán
| Probability | Inca Aruba | Draw | Isidro Metapán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.8% | 30.9% | 47.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.8% | 30.9% | 47.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Isidro Metapán
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán match preview
In the upcoming Primera Division match, Inca Aruba faces Isidro Metapán with a predicted probability of 22% for a home win, 30% for a draw, and 49% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 13% probability. Inca Aruba's expected goals stand at 0.86, while Isidro Metapán's are higher at 1.42, indicating a potential challenge for the home side.
Recent form shows Inca Aruba struggling with three losses in their last five matches, alongside two draws. In contrast, Isidro Metapán has displayed a more favorable performance, with two wins and a draw in their last five games. The confidence grade for this match is rated at C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inca Aruba and Isidro Metapán expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Inca Aruba and Isidro Metapán attack and defence ratings
Inca Aruba
Isidro Metapán
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Isidro Metapán | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 21.8% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Isidro Metapán | 47.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.3% |
| No | 57.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Isidro Metapán win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-1 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 13.0% |
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán stats
Inca Aruba and Isidro Metapán recent form
| Inca Aruba |
LLLLDW |
| Isidro Metapán |
DLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inca Aruba and Isidro Metapán season so far
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 4 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Isidro Metapán record
- They have won 9 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
Inca Aruba vs Isidro Metapán head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Isidro Metapán | Inca Aruba | Primera Division | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.