Fuerte San Francisco
vs
Águila
Garuda Lions Prediction: Águila
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.01.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila
| Probability | Fuerte San Francisco | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.5% | 20.5% | 65.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 14.5% | 20.5% | 65.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Águila
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila match preview
Fuerte San Francisco faces Águila in the Primera Division, with the latter holding a significant advantage according to our model. Águila has a 65% probability of winning, while Fuerte San Francisco sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of Águila, with an expected goals tally of 1.01 for Fuerte San Francisco and 2.27 for Águila.
Recent form shows Fuerte San Francisco struggling with two losses and a draw in their last five matches, while Águila has been more successful, winning four of their last five. In their last ten encounters, Fuerte San Francisco has not secured a win against Águila, recording four draws and six losses. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 64%, and both teams to score stands at 58%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fuerte San Francisco and Águila expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Fuerte San Francisco and Águila attack and defence ratings
Fuerte San Francisco
Águila
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 18 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win | 43.0% | 2.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fuerte San Francisco | 14.5% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Águila | 65.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win | 43.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 35.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 0-2 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.5% |
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila stats
Fuerte San Francisco and Águila recent form
| Fuerte San Francisco |
LLWDLD |
| Águila |
WDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fuerte San Francisco and Águila season so far
Fuerte San Francisco record
- They have won 2 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 16 matches.
Águila record
- They have won 6 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 16 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Águila | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 4-1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Águila | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Fuerte San Francisco | Águila | Copa Presidente | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Fuerte San Francisco | Águila | Primera Division | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-29 | Águila | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 3-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Fuerte San Francisco | Águila | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-17 | Águila | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Fuerte San Francisco | Águila | Primera Division | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-07 | Fuerte San Francisco | Águila | Primera Division | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-31 | Águila | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.