Municipal Limeño
vs
Fuerte San Francisco
1 – 1 Full time
| 61′ | J. Gallardo | ||
| 64′ | G. Mayen |
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco
| Probability | Municipal Limeño | Draw | Fuerte San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.7% | 22.0% | 24.3% |
| Market | 56.9% | 24.6% | 18.6% |
| Final | 56.1% | 23.9% | 20.0% |
| Edge | -0.8% | -0.6% | +1.4% |
Why Municipal Limeño
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.45.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Municipal Limeño and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.65
Municipal Limeño and Fuerte San Francisco attack and defence ratings
Municipal Limeño
Fuerte San Francisco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco: result vs prediction
Municipal Limeño 1 – 1 Fuerte San Francisco
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal Limeño | 56.1% | 1.78 | -0.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal Limeño | 56.1% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% |
| No | 31.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal Limeño win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | |
| 3-1 | 6.7% |
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco stats
Municipal Limeño and Fuerte San Francisco recent form
| Municipal Limeño |
DDWLLL |
| Fuerte San Francisco |
LLLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Municipal Limeño and Fuerte San Francisco going into this match
Municipal Limeño record
- They have won 6 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 18 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco record
- They have won 2 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Fuerte San Francisco | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Fuerte San Francisco | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Municipal Limeño | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 5-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Fuerte San Francisco | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Municipal Limeño | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-24 | Municipal Limeño | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-26 | Fuerte San Francisco | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | Municipal Limeño | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 4-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Fuerte San Francisco | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-01 | Fuerte San Francisco | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Municipal Limeño vs Fuerte San Francisco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.9%, draw 24.6%, away 18.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 3.62 | 5.02 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.65 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 3.62 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.64 | 3.74 | 4.79 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.40 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .