CA La Paz
vs
Piratas
Garuda Lions Prediction: CA La Paz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.25.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
CA La Paz vs Piratas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CA La Paz vs Piratas
| Probability | CA La Paz | Draw | Piratas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.7% | 22.0% | 20.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.7% | 22.0% | 20.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CA La Paz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
CA La Paz vs Piratas match preview
CA La Paz faces Piratas in the Liga de Expansión MX with a strong probability of winning at 58%, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 22% and Piratas at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. The expected goals for CA La Paz is 2.18, compared to Piratas' 1.25, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match, as evidenced by a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance for both teams to score.
In terms of recent form, CA La Paz shows a solid performance with three wins and two draws in their last six matches. Piratas, on the other hand, has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six games. The head-to-head record favors CA La Paz, who won the last encounter, adding to their confidence heading into this match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CA La Paz and Piratas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
CA La Paz and Piratas attack and defence ratings
CA La Paz
Piratas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
CA La Paz vs Piratas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 57.7% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Piratas | 20.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% |
| No | 35.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 36.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
CA La Paz vs Piratas stats
CA La Paz and Piratas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CA La Paz and Piratas season so far
CA La Paz record
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Piratas record
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz vs Piratas head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | CA La Paz | Piratas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.