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Liga de Expansión MX · ·Semi-finals

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG

Garuda Lions Prediction: Monarcas

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.30.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bet on Monarcas

Estadio Morelos, Morelia

Monarcas 46%
Draw 26%
Leones Negros UDG 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Chance Monarcas wins
46%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
60%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMonarcasDrawLeones Negros UDG
Model45.7%26.0%28.3%
Market———
Final45.7%26.0%28.3%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Monarcas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.30.

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG match preview

Monarcas faces Leones Negros UDG in what promises to be an intriguing Liga de Expansión MX clash. According to our model, Monarcas holds a 46% probability of winning, while Leones Negros UDG has a 28% chance, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Monarcas is 1.70 compared to Leones Negros UDG's 1.30, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Monarcas, occurring with a 9% probability.

Recent form shows Monarcas with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Leones Negros UDG has three wins, one loss, and one draw. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Monarcas has secured three victories, while Leones Negros UDG has dominated with seven wins. The model indicates a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability of both teams scoring.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Monarcas ↓ / Leones Negros → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 7% 12% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG expected goals

Monarcas 1.70
Leones Negros UDG 1.30

Total expected goals: 3.00

Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG attack and defence ratings

Monarcas

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Monarcas 45.7% 2.19 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.6% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.5% 1.65 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.3% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Monarcas45.7%
Draw26.0%
Leones Negros UDG28.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%
Both teams to scoreYes60.5%
No39.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.7%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)54.3%
Handicap -1Monarcas win24.8%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss54.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
2-19.4%
1-07.4%
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Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG stats

Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG recent form

newest first
Monarcas WWLWLD
Leones Negros UDG WLWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG season so far

league record

Monarcas record

  • They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Monarcas wins 0Draws 7Leones Negros UDG wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-20MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2026-04-05Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-10-26MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-3
2025-05-11Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-05-04MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-03-21Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2024-10-05MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2024-04-05MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2023-11-19Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2023-11-16MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.

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Prediction snapshot 1 Monarcas Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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