Leones Negros UDG
vs
Durango
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leones Negros UDG
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leones Negros UDG vs Durango
| Probability | Leones Negros UDG | Draw | Durango |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.0% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.0% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Leones Negros UDG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.26.
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango match preview
Leones Negros UDG will face Durango in the Liga de Expansión MX, with kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, Leones Negros UDG holds a 51% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25% and Durango at 24%. The expected goals for Leones Negros UDG are 1.89 compared to Durango's 1.26, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Leones Negros UDG, with a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Leones Negros UDG has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Durango has achieved three wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record shows Leones Negros UDG with two wins against Durango's one in their last three encounters. The probabilities indicate a higher chance of over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 62%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leones Negros UDG and Durango expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Leones Negros UDG and Durango attack and defence ratings
Leones Negros UDG
Durango
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 51.0% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Durango | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones Negros UDG win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango stats
Leones Negros UDG and Durango recent form
| Leones Negros UDG |
WWLDWW |
| Durango |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leones Negros UDG and Durango season so far
Leones Negros UDG record
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
Durango record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Leones Negros UDG vs Durango head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Durango | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-08 | Leones Negros UDG | Durango | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-18 | Durango | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.