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Liga de Expansión MX · ·Quarter-finals

Venados FC vs Monarcas

Garuda Lions Prediction: Venados FC

2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.21.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Venados FC

Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Venados FC 45%
Draw 26%
Monarcas 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Venados FC wins
45%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
62%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

Venados FC vs Monarcas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Venados FC vs Monarcas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVenados FCDrawMonarcas
Model55.0%23.4%21.6%
Market41.1%27.4%31.5%
Final44.6%26.4%29.0%
Edge+3.5%-1.0%-2.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Venados FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.21.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Venados FC below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.6% per unit staked (our 44.6% × 2.37 − 1).

Venados FC vs Monarcas match preview

In the upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, Venados FC faces Monarcas with a projected win probability of 43% for Venados, 31% for Monarcas, and a 26% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Venados FC, with an expected goals tally of 2.01 for Venados and 1.21 for Monarcas. Both teams are expected to score, with a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match.

Recent form shows Venados FC with a record of D-W-D-D-W-W, while Monarcas has struggled, recording L-W-L-D-D-L. In their last 10 encounters, the teams are evenly matched, with Venados FC securing 4 wins, 2 draws, and Monarcas also achieving 4 wins. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Venados FC ↓ / Monarcas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 5% 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Venados FC and Monarcas expected goals

Venados FC 2.01
Monarcas 1.21

Total expected goals: 3.22

Venados FC and Monarcas attack and defence ratings

Venados FC

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Monarcas

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Quarter-finals fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Venados FC vs Monarcas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Venados FC 44.6% 2.24 +3.5% 2.37
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.4% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.7% 1.62 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.6% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.0% 2.22 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Venados FC44.6%
Draw26.4%
Monarcas29.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.4%
Under 2.537.6%
Both teams to scoreYes61.7%
No38.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.0%
12 (either side)73.6%
X2 (draw or away)55.4%
Handicap -1Venados FC win33.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss45.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.7%
2-19.8%
2-08.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Venados FC vs Monarcas stats

Venados FC and Monarcas recent form

newest first
Venados FC DWDDWW
Monarcas LWLDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Venados FC and Monarcas season so far

league record

Venados FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Monarcas record

  • They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Venados FC vs Monarcas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Venados FC wins 2Draws 4Monarcas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-26Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2026-02-15MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2025-09-05Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-2
2025-03-03MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2024-09-14Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2024-03-29MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX3-4
2023-11-10MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2023-10-20Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2023-01-27MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2022-07-30Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Venados FC vs Monarcas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 27.4%, away 31.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.20 3.30 2.87
Marathonbet 2.18 3.30 2.80
Pinnacle 2.37 3.40 2.90
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▼ -0.07
X 3.30 ▼ -0.02
2 2.87 ▲ +0.22

3 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Venados FC Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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