Tlaxcala
vs
CA La Paz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tlaxcala
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tlaxcala is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz
| Probability | Tlaxcala | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.3% | 23.1% | 35.6% |
| Market | 37.4% | 25.4% | 37.2% |
| Final | 38.4% | 24.8% | 36.8% |
| Edge | +1.0% | -0.6% | -0.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.54, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.5% per unit staked (our 38.4% × 2.54 − 1).
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz match preview
In the upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, Tlaxcala faces CA La Paz with a close probability forecast. Tlaxcala has a 38% chance of winning, while CA La Paz is slightly behind at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Tlaxcala, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 72% probability for over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Tlaxcala with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while CA La Paz has won four of their last six, including a recent loss. The expected goals are 1.94 for Tlaxcala and 1.80 for CA La Paz, indicating a competitive match ahead. The head-to-head record favors CA La Paz, who has four wins in the last nine encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tlaxcala and CA La Paz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Tlaxcala and CA La Paz attack and defence ratings
Tlaxcala
CA La Paz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 38.4% | 2.61 | +1.0% | 2.54 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 38.4% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| CA La Paz | 36.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% |
| No | 27.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tlaxcala win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz stats
Tlaxcala and CA La Paz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tlaxcala and CA La Paz season so far
Tlaxcala record
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz record
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.9 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-08 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-3 |
| 2025-01-11 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-4 |
| 2024-07-27 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-2 |
| 2024-02-17 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-3 |
| 2023-09-27 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-04 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-10 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tlaxcala vs CA La Paz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 25.4%, away 37.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.52 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.52 | 2.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.54 | 3.63 | 2.56 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .