CA La Paz
vs
Dorados
Garuda Lions Prediction: CA La Paz
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.12 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
CA La Paz vs Dorados overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CA La Paz vs Dorados
| Probability | CA La Paz | Draw | Dorados |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.6% | 14.8% | 11.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 73.6% | 14.8% | 11.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CA La Paz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.12 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
CA La Paz vs Dorados match preview
CA La Paz faces Dorados in an upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, with a strong probability of victory for the home side at 74%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 3-1, with an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Additionally, there is a 69% likelihood that both teams will find the net.
In terms of recent form, CA La Paz has shown resilience with a record of D-W-L-W-W-D, while Dorados has struggled, recording W-L-L-L-D-D. The expected goals for CA La Paz stand at 3.12 compared to Dorados' 1.26, reflecting a significant disparity in attacking potential. Historically, CA La Paz has been dominant in their last two encounters, securing 1 win and 1 draw against Dorados, who have yet to register a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CA La Paz and Dorados expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.38
CA La Paz and Dorados attack and defence ratings
CA La Paz
Dorados
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
CA La Paz vs Dorados markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 73.6% |
| Draw | 14.8% | |
| Dorados | 11.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% |
| No | 31.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 55.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 26.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | |
| 3-0 | 6.3% |
CA La Paz vs Dorados stats
CA La Paz and Dorados recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CA La Paz and Dorados season so far
CA La Paz record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Dorados record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz vs Dorados head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Dorados | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | CA La Paz | Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.