Piratas
vs
Tapatío
Garuda Lions Prediction: Piratas
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.29 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Piratas vs Tapatío overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Piratas vs Tapatío
| Probability | Piratas | Draw | Tapatío |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.1% | 12.3% | 7.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 80.1% | 12.3% | 7.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Piratas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.29 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Piratas vs Tapatío match preview
Piratas are heavily favored in their upcoming match against Tapatío, with a probability of 79% for a victory according to our model. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Piratas, with an anticipated 3.27 goals compared to Tapatío's 1.06. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 3-1, occurring with an 8% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Piratas have secured three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Tapatío has struggled, managing only two wins alongside four losses. The model indicates a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 81% and a 63% probability that both teams will score, highlighting an expectation for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Piratas and Tapatío expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.31
Piratas and Tapatío attack and defence ratings
Piratas
Tapatío
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Piratas vs Tapatío markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.5% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 80.1% |
| Draw | 12.3% | |
| Tapatío | 7.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win | 63.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 19.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.1% |
| 3-0 | 8.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Piratas vs Tapatío stats
Piratas and Tapatío recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Piratas and Tapatío season so far
Piratas record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tapatío record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.