Alebrijes de Oaxaca
vs
Mineros de Zacatecas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas
| Probability | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Draw | Mineros de Zacatecas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.6% | 25.1% | 33.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.6% | 25.1% | 33.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alebrijes de Oaxaca
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas match preview
Alebrijes de Oaxaca faces Mineros de Zacatecas in a Liga de Expansión MX matchup with Alebrijes having a 42% probability of winning, compared to 33% for Mineros and a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Alebrijes, with a 9% likelihood. The model also indicates a strong possibility of over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%.
In terms of recent form, Alebrijes de Oaxaca has recorded three wins followed by three losses, while Mineros de Zacatecas has two losses, a draw, and two wins in their last five matches. The expected goals are 1.73 for Alebrijes and 1.52 for Mineros. In their last two encounters, Alebrijes has one win and one draw against Mineros, who have yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Mineros de Zacatecas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Mineros de Zacatecas attack and defence ratings
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mineros de Zacatecas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 41.6% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 33.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.4% |
| No | 34.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 58.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas stats
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Mineros de Zacatecas recent form
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
WWWLLL |
| Mineros de Zacatecas |
LDLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Mineros de Zacatecas season so far
Alebrijes de Oaxaca record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Mineros de Zacatecas record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.