Mineros de Zacatecas
vs
Leones Negros UDG
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mineros de Zacatecas
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mineros de Zacatecas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG
| Probability | Mineros de Zacatecas | Draw | Leones Negros UDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.5% | 22.2% | 30.3% |
| Market | 47.0% | 25.3% | 27.6% |
| Final | 47.1% | 24.6% | 28.3% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.8% | +0.7% |
Why Mineros de Zacatecas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.71.
Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 47.1% × 2.03 − 1).
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG match preview
Mineros de Zacatecas will face Leones Negros UDG in a Liga de Expansión MX match on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Mineros de Zacatecas has a 47% probability of winning, while Leones Negros UDG stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Mineros, with an expected goals tally of 2.16 for them and 1.70 for Leones Negros.
In terms of recent form, Mineros de Zacatecas has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Leones Negros UDG has also struggled, securing two wins and three draws in their last five outings. Notably, in their last two encounters, Mineros has secured two victories over Leones Negros, contributing to a confidence grade of C for this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mineros de Zacatecas and Leones Negros UDG expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.85
Mineros de Zacatecas and Leones Negros UDG attack and defence ratings
Mineros de Zacatecas
Leones Negros UDG
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 47.1% | 2.12 | +0.1% | 2.03 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 47.1% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Leones Negros UDG | 28.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.1% |
| No | 26.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mineros de Zacatecas win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 52.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG stats
Mineros de Zacatecas and Leones Negros UDG recent form
| Mineros de Zacatecas |
LDLWWL |
| Leones Negros UDG |
LDWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mineros de Zacatecas and Leones Negros UDG season so far
Mineros de Zacatecas record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
Leones Negros UDG record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Leones Negros UDG | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-3 |
| 2025-10-12 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-26 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Leones Negros UDG | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-1 |
| 2024-11-07 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-11 | Leones Negros UDG | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-29 | Leones Negros UDG | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-26 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-02 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-02 | Leones Negros UDG | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 25.4%, away 27.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.58 | 3.36 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.58 | 3.28 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.86 | 3.52 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.19 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .