Tlaxcala
vs
Correcaminos Uat
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tlaxcala
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.28.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat
| Probability | Tlaxcala | Draw | Correcaminos Uat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.2% | 19.0% | 16.7% |
| Market | 46.8% | 24.7% | 28.5% |
| Final | 51.2% | 23.3% | 25.6% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -1.4% | -2.9% |
Why Tlaxcala
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tlaxcala below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.9% per unit staked (our 51.2% × 2.03 − 1).
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat match preview
Tlaxcala faces Correcaminos Uat in a Liga de Expansión MX matchup, with the home side holding a 51% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Tlaxcala stand at 2.56, while Correcaminos Uat is projected to score 1.27. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Tlaxcala, with a 9% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is a 74% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Tlaxcala with a mixed record of D-W-D-W-L-W, while Correcaminos Uat has struggled, recording L-L-D-W-L-D in their last six matches. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Correcaminos Uat has won both, leaving Tlaxcala looking to break this trend. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tlaxcala and Correcaminos Uat expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.83
Tlaxcala and Correcaminos Uat attack and defence ratings
Tlaxcala
Correcaminos Uat
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 51.2% | 1.95 | +4.4% | 2.03 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Tlaxcala win | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 51.2% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Correcaminos Uat | 25.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.3% |
| No | 32.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tlaxcala win | 43.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 35.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | |
| 3-1 | 7.7% |
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat stats
Tlaxcala and Correcaminos Uat recent form
| Tlaxcala |
DWDWLW |
| Correcaminos Uat |
LLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tlaxcala and Correcaminos Uat season so far
Tlaxcala record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Correcaminos Uat record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Correcaminos Uat | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Tlaxcala | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 24.9%, away 28.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.60 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.33 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.20 | 2.84 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .