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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 13

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala

2 – 2 Full time

7′M. Ramirez
16′D. Alvarez
29′F. Illescas
31′A. Robles
35′C. Robles
37′E. Robles
39′E. Robles
46′U. JaimesO. Millan
46′M. GarciaJ. Ferrer
53′M. Barragan
55′J. Freyfeld
61′M. RamirezC. Gonzalez
61′E. HernandezChristian
73′D. AlvarezR. E. Camacho Lastra
77′I. GoveaF. Plascencia
77′A. IniestraD. Hernandez
79′M. A. Trejo Castro
82′J. AlonzoI. Larios
82′D. Hernandez
88′M. BarraganR. Renteria
88′A. RoblesE. J. Alaffita Garcia
90′E. Torres

Estadio Guaycura, La PazReferee: O. Delgadillo Franco

CA La Paz 64%
Draw 19%
Tlaxcala 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCA La PazDrawTlaxcala
Model71.1%15.6%13.3%
Market61.1%20.1%18.7%
Final63.6%19.0%17.4%
Edge+2.5%-1.1%-1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why CA La Paz

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.04 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices CA La Paz below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CA La Paz ↓ / Tlaxcala → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 8% 3 8% 4+ 9% 13% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

CA La Paz and Tlaxcala expected goals

CA La Paz 3.04
Tlaxcala 1.35

Total expected goals: 4.39

CA La Paz and Tlaxcala attack and defence ratings

CA La Paz

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Tlaxcala

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala: result vs prediction

CA La Paz 2 – 2 Tlaxcala

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 13 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CA La Paz 63.6% 1.57 +2.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.4% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.9% 1.41 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.6% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 CA La Paz win 52.5% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CA La Paz63.6%
Draw19.0%
Tlaxcala17.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.4%
Under 2.518.6%
Both teams to scoreYes70.9%
No29.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.6%
12 (either side)81.0%
X2 (draw or away)36.4%
Handicap -1CA La Paz win52.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss29.0%
Correct score (top 3)3-17.9%
2-17.7%
4-16.0%

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala stats

CA La Paz and Tlaxcala recent form

newest first
CA La Paz WLWWDW
Tlaxcala WDWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CA La Paz and Tlaxcala going into this match

league record before kick-off

CA La Paz record

  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.

Tlaxcala record

  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4CA La Paz wins 3Draws 1Tlaxcala wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-08CA La PazTlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-09-28TlaxcalaCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX3-3
2025-01-11CA La PazTlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX4-4
2024-07-27TlaxcalaCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2024-02-17TlaxcalaCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX2-3
2023-09-27CA La PazTlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2023-04-04TlaxcalaCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2022-08-10CA La PazTlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.1%, draw 20.1%, away 18.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.46 4.55 4.98
Bet365 1.55 4.50 4.75
BetVictor 1.50 4.60 5.00
Betano 1.53 4.40 4.85
Betfair 1.44 4.60 5.00
Dafabet 1.53 4.70 4.90
Marathonbet 1.45 4.55 4.80
Pinnacle 1.53 4.68 5.10
SBO 1.46 4.17 4.48
William Hill 1.50 4.50 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 —
X 4.55 ▲ +0.15
2 4.89 ▼ -0.01

10 snapshots recorded, from .