CA La Paz
vs
Tlaxcala
Garuda Lions Prediction: CA La Paz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala
| Probability | CA La Paz | Draw | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.9% | 15.5% | 11.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 72.9% | 15.5% | 11.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CA La Paz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala match preview
CA La Paz enters this match against Tlaxcala with a strong probability of winning at 73%, while Tlaxcala has a 12% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of CA La Paz, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 2.97 for La Paz and 1.19 for Tlaxcala. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 78%, and both teams scoring is projected at 67%.
In terms of recent form, CA La Paz has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last six matches, while Tlaxcala has two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same timeframe. Historically, CA La Paz has a favorable record against Tlaxcala, with one win and one draw in their last two encounters, while Tlaxcala has yet to secure a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.16
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala attack and defence ratings
CA La Paz
Tlaxcala
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 72.9% |
| Draw | 15.5% | |
| Tlaxcala | 11.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.5% |
| No | 33.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 54.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 27.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-1 | 8.1% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala stats
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala season so far
CA La Paz record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Tlaxcala record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.