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Liga de Expansión MX · ·Apertura - 13

Cancún vs Venados FC

Garuda Lions Prediction: Cancún

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

Bet on Cancún

Referee: H. Solorio Arreola

Cancún 49%
Draw 24%
Venados FC 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Cancún wins
49%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
69%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Cancún vs Venados FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cancún vs Venados FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCancúnDrawVenados FC
Model54.2%21.8%23.9%
Market47.3%25.2%27.5%
Final49.1%24.4%26.6%
Edge+6.9%-3.4%-3.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Cancún

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.46.
  • The market prices Cancún below the model: +6.9 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Cancún vs Venados FC match preview

Cancún hosts Venados FC in a Liga de Expansión MX match with Cancún holding a 54% probability of victory according to our model. The expected goals for Cancún stand at 2.23, while Venados FC is projected to score 1.46. Recent form shows Cancún with a record of D-W-L-W-D-D, and Venados FC at D-W-W-L-W-L. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Cancún, with a 9% chance of occurring.

Both teams are likely to find the net, as our model indicates a 69% probability for both teams to score. Additionally, there is a 71% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. In their last two encounters, both teams have secured one win each, adding an intriguing dynamic to this upcoming fixture.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cancún ↓ / Venados FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

Cancún and Venados FC expected goals

Cancún 2.23
Venados FC 1.46

Total expected goals: 3.69

Cancún and Venados FC attack and defence ratings

Cancún

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Venados FC

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Apertura - 13 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Cancún vs Venados FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cancún 49.1% 2.04 +6.9% 1.97
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.2% 1.40 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.3% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.6% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.8% 2.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cancún49.1%
Draw24.4%
Venados FC26.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.2%
Under 2.528.8%
Both teams to scoreYes69.3%
No30.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.4%
12 (either side)75.6%
X2 (draw or away)50.9%
Handicap -1Cancún win33.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss45.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.1%
1-19.0%
3-16.7%
Compare prices for this pick

Cancún vs Venados FC stats

Cancún and Venados FC recent form

newest first
Cancún DWLWDD
Venados FC DWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cancún and Venados FC season so far

league record

Cancún record

  • They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Venados FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cancún vs Venados FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Cancún wins 1Draws 6Venados FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-11Venados FCCancúnLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-09-14CancúnVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2025-02-16CancúnVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-2
2024-09-01Venados FCCancúnLiga de Expansión MX4-0
2024-04-04Venados FCCancúnLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2023-11-19CancúnVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2023-11-17Venados FCCancúnLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2023-07-30CancúnVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2023-04-19Venados FCCancúnLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2022-08-31CancúnVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cancún vs Venados FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 24.6%, away 26.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.87 3.62 3.40
Bet365 1.95 3.75 3.40
BetVictor 1.95 3.70 3.30
Betano 1.88 3.75 3.45
Betfair 1.85 3.80 3.40
Dafabet 1.89 3.80 3.60
Marathonbet 1.85 3.62 3.32
Pinnacle 1.97 3.77 3.58
SBO 1.71 3.44 3.42
William Hill 1.95 3.50 3.10
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.28
X 3.66 ▼ -0.34
2 3.36 ▼ -0.84

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Cancún Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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