Piratas
vs
Tepatitlán
Garuda Lions Prediction: Piratas
3 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Piratas vs Tepatitlán overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Piratas vs Tepatitlán
| Probability | Piratas | Draw | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81.1% | 12.5% | 6.4% |
| Market | 80.3% | 12.4% | 7.3% |
| Final | 80.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.1% | -0.9% |
Why Piratas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.10 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Piratas vs Tepatitlán match preview
Piratas are heavily favored in their upcoming match against Tepatitlán, with a probability of 78% for a win according to our model. The expected goals for Piratas stand at 3.11, while Tepatitlán is projected to score only 0.84. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, which has a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals in the match at 76%, and both teams to score has a 55% probability.
In terms of recent form, Piratas have shown a mixed performance with a record of L-W-L-W-D-W, while Tepatitlán's form has been less favorable, posting L-D-W-L-L-L in their last six matches. This context adds to the confidence in Piratas' strong position heading into the fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Piratas and Tepatitlán expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.95
Piratas and Tepatitlán attack and defence ratings
Piratas
Tepatitlán
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Piratas vs Tepatitlán markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 80.5% | 1.24 | +0.8% | 1.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.9% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 80.5% |
| Draw | 12.4% | |
| Tepatitlán | 7.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win | 63.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 18.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 9.6% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | |
| 3-1 | 8.1% |
Piratas vs Tepatitlán stats
Piratas and Tepatitlán recent form
| Piratas |
LWLWDW |
| Tepatitlán |
LDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Piratas and Tepatitlán season so far
Piratas record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Piratas vs Tepatitlán head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Piratas vs Tepatitlán odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 79.8%, draw 12.7%, away 7.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.11 | 7.30 | 12.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.14 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.20 | 6.10 | 10.75 |
| Betfair | 1.13 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.19 | 7.20 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.11 | 7.30 | 12.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 8.37 | 12.90 |
| SBO | 1.16 | 5.51 | 8.30 |
| William Hill | 1.14 | 7.50 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .