Monarcas
vs
CDS Tampico Madero
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monarcas
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero
| Probability | Monarcas | Draw | CDS Tampico Madero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.1% | 22.1% | 10.8% |
| Market | 63.2% | 21.0% | 15.8% |
| Final | 64.2% | 21.3% | 14.6% |
| Edge | +3.9% | +1.1% | -5.0% |
Why Monarcas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Monarcas below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero match preview
Monarcas enters this matchup with a strong probability of winning at 67%, while CDS Tampico Madero has an 11% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Monarcas, with a 14% likelihood. Monarcas has shown solid recent form, recording two wins and a draw in their last three matches, while CDS Tampico Madero has struggled, with only one win in their last five.
In terms of expected goals, Monarcas is projected to score 1.97, compared to CDS Tampico Madero's 0.67. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 49%, and both teams scoring sits at 43%. In their last two encounters, Monarcas has yet to secure a victory, with one draw and one loss against CDS Tampico Madero.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monarcas and CDS Tampico Madero expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Monarcas and CDS Tampico Madero attack and defence ratings
Monarcas
CDS Tampico Madero
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 64.2% | 1.56 | +3.9% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 64.2% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| CDS Tampico Madero | 14.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.9% |
| No | 57.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win | 42.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 32.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 1-1 | 10.4% |
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero stats
Monarcas and CDS Tampico Madero recent form
| Monarcas |
DDLWWW |
| CDS Tampico Madero |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monarcas and CDS Tampico Madero season so far
Monarcas record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CDS Tampico Madero record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | CDS Tampico Madero | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Monarcas | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-11 | Monarcas | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-28 | CDS Tampico Madero | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.7%, draw 21.0%, away 16.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.30 | 5.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.15 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 4.30 | 5.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.66 | 6.08 |
| SBO | 1.42 | 3.82 | 4.94 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .