Tepatitlán
vs
Monarcas
1 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | M. Nambo | ||
| 6′ | R. del CampoA. Flores | ||
| 20′ | J. MartinezA. Andrade | ||
| 24′ | S. Hernandez | ||
| 36′ | J. Cruz | ||
| 39′ | J. Sanchez | ||
| 45′ | G. Baez | ||
| 46′ | S. HernandezJ. Van Rankin | ||
| 46′ | V. LopezP. Romero | ||
| 49′ | G. Baez | ||
| 49′ | G. Baez | ||
| 55′ | J. GodinezN. Martinez | ||
| 63′ | A. Flores | ||
| 67′ | J. CruzB. Casas | ||
| 76′ | M. RodriguezA. Izarra | ||
| 79′ | L. EgurrolaT. Arevalo | ||
| 79′ | V. ValenciaI. Contreras | ||
| 82′ | D. Zamora | ||
| 90′ | A. Andrade |
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tepatitlán vs Monarcas
| Probability | Tepatitlán | Draw | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.0% | 24.6% | 56.5% |
| Market | 16.4% | 20.2% | 63.4% |
| Final | 17.0% | 21.3% | 61.7% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +1.1% | -1.7% |
Why Monarcas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tepatitlán and Monarcas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Tepatitlán and Monarcas attack and defence ratings
Tepatitlán
Monarcas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas: result vs prediction
Tepatitlán 1 – 1 Monarcas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 61.7% | 1.62 | -1.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tepatitlán | 17.0% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Monarcas | 61.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win | 33.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 43.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.9% |
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas stats
Tepatitlán and Monarcas recent form
| Tepatitlán |
WLLLLW |
| Monarcas |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tepatitlán and Monarcas going into this match
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Monarcas record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-01 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-17 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-03 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-08 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-02 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-09-30 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-01 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.4%, draw 20.2%, away 63.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.83 | 4.55 | 1.40 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Betano | 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.50 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 5.60 | 4.70 | 1.47 |
| Marathonbet | 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 5.48 | 4.95 | 1.47 |
| SBO | 5.22 | 4.12 | 1.40 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .