Tepatitlán
vs
Monarcas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monarcas
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tepatitlán vs Monarcas
| Probability | Tepatitlán | Draw | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.0% | 24.6% | 56.5% |
| Market | 16.4% | 20.2% | 63.4% |
| Final | 17.0% | 21.3% | 61.7% |
| Edge | +2.6% | +4.4% | -6.9% |
Why Monarcas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas match preview
In the upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, Tepatitlán faces Monarcas with a kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. According to our model, Tepatitlán has a 17% chance of winning, while Monarcas holds a 61% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Monarcas, with expected goals of 1.00 for Tepatitlán and 1.86 for Monarcas.
Recent form shows Tepatitlán struggling with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Monarcas is in better shape, with four wins and two draws in the same period. Both teams have a 55% chance of scoring, and there is also a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tepatitlán and Monarcas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Tepatitlán and Monarcas attack and defence ratings
Tepatitlán
Monarcas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 61.7% | 1.62 | -6.9% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tepatitlán | 17.0% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Monarcas | 61.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 43.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.9% |
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas stats
Tepatitlán and Monarcas recent form
| Tepatitlán |
WLLLLW |
| Monarcas |
DLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tepatitlán and Monarcas season so far
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Monarcas record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-01 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-17 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-03 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-08 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-02 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-09-30 | Monarcas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-01 | Tepatitlán | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.4%, draw 20.2%, away 63.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.83 | 4.55 | 1.40 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Betano | 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.50 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 5.60 | 4.70 | 1.47 |
| Marathonbet | 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 5.48 | 4.95 | 1.47 |
| SBO | 5.22 | 4.12 | 1.40 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .