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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 12

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat

2 – 1 Full time

21′J. Bustos
21′B. FadikaS. Gallinar
30′J. Reyes
33′A. Justo
45′E. Torres
46′G. MorenoD. Barron
48′W. Guzman
58′T. SandovalR. Arce
63′I. Barreda
63′O. Perez
64′A. Justo
68′J. BustosD. Ayala
68′J. EstopierN. Gomez Del Rosal
70′A. Catalan
79′I. Barreda
81′W. OrtegaY. Uribe
81′D. MinaJ. Cantu
85′P. VillaT. Jaimes Rodriguez
85′I. BarredaD. Martinez
85′S. GallinarD. Collazo
88′R. Arce
90′L. Jeffus

Referee: H. Solorio Arreola

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 26%
Draw 25%
Correcaminos Uat 49%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlebrijes de OaxacaDrawCorrecaminos Uat
Model32.1%27.9%40.0%
Market24.3%23.4%52.2%
Final26.3%24.5%49.2%
Edge+7.8%+4.4%-12.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alebrijes de O ↓ / Correcaminos U → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 8%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Correcaminos Uat expected goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.29
Correcaminos Uat 1.46

Total expected goals: 2.75

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Correcaminos Uat attack and defence ratings

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Attack 0.65 -35%
Defence 1.33 +33%

Correcaminos Uat

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat: result vs prediction

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2 – 1 Correcaminos Uat

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 12 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Correcaminos Uat 49.2% 2.03 -12.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.7% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.8% 1.76 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.5% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.0% 1.67 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alebrijes de Oaxaca26.3%
Draw24.5%
Correcaminos Uat49.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%
Both teams to scoreYes56.8%
No43.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.8%
12 (either side)75.5%
X2 (draw or away)73.7%
Handicap -1Correcaminos Uat win19.8%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss60.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
1-28.8%
0-18.2%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat stats

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Correcaminos Uat recent form

newest first
Alebrijes de Oaxaca LLLWLD
Correcaminos Uat DWLDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Correcaminos Uat going into this match

league record before kick-off

Alebrijes de Oaxaca record

  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Correcaminos Uat record

  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins 2Draws 2Correcaminos Uat wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18Correcaminos UatAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX1-3
2025-11-08Alebrijes de OaxacaCorrecaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2025-03-01Alebrijes de OaxacaCorrecaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2024-09-13Correcaminos UatAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX1-3
2024-02-07Alebrijes de OaxacaCorrecaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2023-08-30Correcaminos UatAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX7-0
2023-02-24Alebrijes de OaxacaCorrecaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX4-0
2022-07-27Correcaminos UatAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX0-0
2022-04-13Correcaminos UatAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2021-11-03Alebrijes de OaxacaCorrecaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.3%, draw 23.4%, away 52.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.72 3.86 1.73
Bet365 4.50 4.75 1.60
BetVictor 3.90 3.90 1.75
Betano 3.80 3.90 1.75
Betfair 3.80 3.90 1.70
Dafabet 3.65 3.90 1.85
Marathonbet 3.64 3.86 1.71
Pinnacle 3.95 4.03 1.79
SBO 3.44 3.44 1.77
William Hill 3.60 3.70 1.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.76 ▲ +1.23
X 3.90 ▲ +0.53
2 1.75 ▼ -0.70

9 snapshots recorded, from .