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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 11

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

4 – 0 Full time

19′A. Hernandez
20′D. Lajud Martinez
37′A. Tecpanecatl
45′K. Alvarez
46′J. BustosJ. Alaniz
46′Andrey MarcosD. Martinez
46′E. SanchezS. Gallinar
47′J. Alaniz
54′I. BarredaB. Fadika
74′D. Lajud Martinez
75′D. Lajud MartinezI. Doumbouya
75′C. FernandezD. Sanchez
79′G. Lopez
80′A. HernandezA. Justo
84′B. FigueroaA. Enciso
84′J. GamboaE. Ochoa
88′R. GonzalezU. Garcia
90′U. Garcia

Referee: E. Miranda

Piratas 71%
Draw 19%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPiratasDrawAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Model66.1%22.4%11.5%
Market72.4%18.4%9.2%
Final70.8%19.4%9.8%
Edge-6.3%+4.0%+2.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Piratas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Piratas ↓ / Alebrijes de O → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 13% 11% 2 13% 9% 3 9% 4+ 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Piratas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected goals

Piratas 1.96
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0.70

Total expected goals: 2.66

Piratas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack and defence ratings

Piratas

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Attack 0.70 -30%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: result vs prediction

Piratas 4 – 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Piratas 70.8% 1.41 -6.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.4% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score No 55.8% 1.79 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 90.2% 1.11 — —
Handicap -1 Piratas win 41.6% 2.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Piratas70.8%
Draw19.4%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca9.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
Both teams to scoreYes44.2%
No55.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)90.2%
12 (either side)80.6%
X2 (draw or away)29.2%
Handicap -1Piratas win41.6%
Push (exactly one goal)24.6%
Loss33.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-013.4%
1-012.7%
1-110.6%

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca stats

Piratas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca recent form

newest first
Piratas LWDWDL
Alebrijes de Oaxaca LLWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Piratas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca going into this match

league record before kick-off

Piratas record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 72.4%, draw 18.4%, away 9.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.29 5.62 10.50
Bet365 1.33 5.50 7.50
BetVictor 1.25 5.25 10.50
Betano 1.31 4.80 8.50
Betfair 1.22 5.00 10.00
Marathonbet 1.22 5.00 10.00
Pinnacle 1.30 5.33 9.76
SBO 1.27 4.55 7.43
William Hill 1.25 4.80 10.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.27 ▲ +0.07
X 5.00 ▼ -0.25
2 10.00 ▼ -0.50

12 snapshots recorded, from .