Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 11

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas

4 – 2 Full time

3′A. Escoboza
17′J. I. Reyes Olguin
35′J. Angulo
46′J. AnguloL. Gutierrez
46′C. A. Flores SanchezP. Padilla
54′A. OntiverosM. Lozano
58′J. JimenezW. D. Castro Garcia
58′A. VillalobosJ. Machado
60′L. Duran
61′K. MaganaJ. Valenzuela
62′A. Escoboza
65′O. Mazatan
66′J. AvilaJ. Esquivel
68′M. Lozano
70′M. Lozano
74′W. D. Castro Garcia
75′J. GonzalezJ. Castillo
83′L. Sandoval
83′A. EscobozaJ. Torres
83′J. GonzalezC. Vega Hernandez
90′W. D. Castro Garcia
90′P. Padilla

Estadio Francisco Zarco, DurangoReferee: A. Barba

Durango 37%
Draw 34%
Mineros de Zacatecas 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDurangoDrawMineros de Zacatecas
Model36.6%33.7%29.7%
Market———
Final36.6%33.7%29.7%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Durango ↓ / Mineros de Zac → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 11% 1 13% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 60%
3+ goals 32%
No goals 15%

Durango and Mineros de Zacatecas expected goals

Durango 1.05
Mineros de Zacatecas 0.92

Total expected goals: 1.98

Durango and Mineros de Zacatecas attack and defence ratings

Durango

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Mineros de Zacatecas

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas: result vs prediction

Durango 4 – 2 Mineros de Zacatecas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Durango 36.6% 2.73 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 68.3% 1.46 — —
Both teams to score No 59.4% 1.68 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 70.3% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.4% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Durango36.6%
Draw33.7%
Mineros de Zacatecas29.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531.7%
Under 2.568.3%
Both teams to scoreYes40.6%
No59.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.3%
12 (either side)66.3%
X2 (draw or away)63.4%
Handicap -1Durango win15.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss63.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-015.2%
1-114.8%
1-013.3%

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas stats

Durango and Mineros de Zacatecas recent form

newest first

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Durango and Mineros de Zacatecas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Durango record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.

Mineros de Zacatecas record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

2Durango wins 0Draws 0Mineros de Zacatecas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-01-28Mineros de ZacatecasDurangoLiga de Expansión MX1-2
2022-10-15DurangoMineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Durango vs Mineros de Zacatecas odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.