Cancún
vs
Tapatío
1 – 0 Full time
| 3′ | L. Jimenez | ||
| 17′ | M. Cendejas | ||
| 25′ | R. Reyes | ||
| 51′ | J. Hernandez | ||
| 59′ | F. MelendreG. Preciado | ||
| 59′ | L. Ruiz | ||
| 65′ | L. JimenezD. Delgadillo | ||
| 65′ | C. MedinaD. Latorre | ||
| 65′ | S. EsparzaC. Corona | ||
| 69′ | P. UscangaT. Gigena | ||
| 69′ | R. ReyesD. Guillen | ||
| 75′ | T. Gigena | ||
| 76′ | T. Gigena | ||
| 77′ | A. ChavezJ. Cortes | ||
| 77′ | K. CamposL. Lopez | ||
| 80′ | L. LedesmaD. Ponce | ||
| 86′ | R. NunoJ. Lewis |
Cancún vs Tapatío overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cancún vs Tapatío
| Probability | Cancún | Draw | Tapatío |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.1% | 22.0% | 21.9% |
| Market | 54.9% | 24.3% | 20.8% |
| Final | 55.2% | 23.7% | 21.1% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -2.3% | +1.0% |
Why Cancún
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.34.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cancún and Tapatío expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Cancún and Tapatío attack and defence ratings
Cancún
Tapatío
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cancún vs Tapatío: result vs prediction
Cancún 1 – 0 Tapatío
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cancún vs Tapatío markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 55.2% | 1.81 | +1.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 55.2% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Tapatío | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.3% |
| No | 33.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cancún win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
Cancún vs Tapatío stats
Cancún and Tapatío recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cancún and Tapatío going into this match
Cancún record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tapatío record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Cancún vs Tapatío head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Cancún | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tapatío | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tapatío | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-28 | Cancún | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Cancún | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-20 | Tapatío | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-27 | Cancún | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-07-22 | Tapatío | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-30 | Cancún | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-26 | Tapatío | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cancún vs Tapatío odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 24.3%, away 20.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.32 | 4.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.78 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 4.01 | 4.59 |
| SBO | 1.64 | 3.50 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .