Tapatío
vs
Tlaxcala
4 – 0 Full time
| 7′ | G. Garcia | ||
| 13′ | G. Garcia | ||
| 30′ | C. Soldati | ||
| 46′ | G. GarciaD. Villaseca | ||
| 54′ | V. Moragrega | ||
| 59′ | E. HernandezR. E. Camacho Lastra | ||
| 59′ | D. AlvarezChristian | ||
| 60′ | V. Moragrega | ||
| 61′ | J. Hernandez | ||
| 67′ | J. ZamudioF. Plascencia | ||
| 67′ | E. SantosC. Gonzalez | ||
| 67′ | V. MoragregaD. Latorre | ||
| 68′ | C. SoldatiS. Esparza | ||
| 77′ | J. UribeR. Nuno | ||
| 77′ | J. HernandezM. Cendejas | ||
| 84′ | I. GoveaA. Sanchez | ||
| 87′ | F. Plascencia | ||
| 90′ | S. Esparza |
Tapatío vs Tlaxcala overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tapatío vs Tlaxcala
| Probability | Tapatío | Draw | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.8% | 23.3% | 25.9% |
| Market | 48.0% | 25.8% | 26.2% |
| Final | 48.7% | 25.2% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -2.5% | -0.3% |
Why Tapatío
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.42.
- The market prices Tapatío below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tapatío and Tlaxcala expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.44
Tapatío and Tlaxcala attack and defence ratings
Tapatío
Tlaxcala
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tapatío vs Tlaxcala: result vs prediction
Tapatío 4 – 0 Tlaxcala
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tapatío vs Tlaxcala markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 48.7% | 2.05 | +2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.9% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 48.7% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Tlaxcala | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% |
| No | 33.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tapatío win | 30.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
Tapatío vs Tlaxcala stats
Tapatío and Tlaxcala recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tapatío and Tlaxcala going into this match
Tapatío record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Tlaxcala record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tapatío vs Tlaxcala head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Tapatío | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Tlaxcala | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | Tapatío | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-22 | Tlaxcala | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-3 |
| 2024-03-13 | Tlaxcala | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-3 |
| 2023-08-24 | Tapatío | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-06 | Tapatío | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-04 | Tlaxcala | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2023-02-21 | Tlaxcala | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2022-09-09 | Tapatío | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tapatío vs Tlaxcala odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.0%, draw 25.8%, away 26.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.46 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.46 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.76 | 3.65 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.16 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .