Liga de Expansión MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 9
Tepatitlán
vs
Mineros de Zacatecas
0 – 1 Full time
| 46′ | J. L. Rios OrbeM. Lopez | ||
| 46′ | L. EgurrolaA. Moreno | ||
| 58′ | J. CanoO. Mazatan | ||
| 58′ | W. D. Castro GarciaJ. Jimenez | ||
| 58′ | J. MachadoP. Padilla | ||
| 59′ | O. Mazatan | ||
| 61′ | V. ValenciaG. Baez | ||
| 69′ | J. Avila | ||
| 71′ | A. TamayH. Avila | ||
| 71′ | E. MartinezT. Arevalo | ||
| 71′ | D. MarmolejoJ. Esquivel | ||
| 78′ | J. AvilaM. Cordero | ||
| 80′ | A. Cardenas | ||
| 84′ | T. Arevalo | ||
| 90′ | M. Cordero |
Tepatitlán
26%
Draw
25%
Mineros de Zacatecas
49%
Tepatitlán vs Mineros de Zacatecas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tepatitlán vs Mineros de Zacatecas
| Probability | Tepatitlán | Draw | Mineros de Zacatecas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.9% | 21.9% | 58.2% |
| Market | 27.7% | 26.1% | 46.2% |
| Final | 25.8% | 25.1% | 49.2% |
| Edge | -7.8% | -4.2% | +12.0% |
Why Mineros de Zacatecas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mineros de Zacatecas below the model: +12.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
66%
No goals
4%
Tepatitlán and Mineros de Zacatecas expected goals
Tepatitlán
1.23
Mineros de Zacatecas
2.18
Total expected goals: 3.41
Tepatitlán and Mineros de Zacatecas attack and defence ratings
Tepatitlán
Attack
0.64 -36%
Defence
1.69 +69%
Mineros de Zacatecas
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tepatitlán vs Mineros de Zacatecas: result vs prediction
Tepatitlán 0 – 1 Mineros de Zacatecas
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tepatitlán vs Mineros de Zacatecas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 49.2% | 2.03 | +12.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tepatitlán | 25.8% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 49.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% |
| No | 36.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mineros de Zacatecas win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 41.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
Tepatitlán vs Mineros de Zacatecas stats
Tepatitlán and Mineros de Zacatecas recent form
| Tepatitlán |
LLLWLL |
| Mineros de Zacatecas |
LLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tepatitlán and Mineros de Zacatecas going into this match
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Mineros de Zacatecas record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Tepatitlán vs Mineros de Zacatecas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Tepatitlán wins
5Draws
3Mineros de Zacatecas wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Tepatitlán | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Tepatitlán | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-3 |
| 2025-04-20 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-03 | Tepatitlán | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-16 | Tepatitlán | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-20 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 5-2 |
| 2023-11-17 | Tepatitlán | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-24 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tepatitlán vs Mineros de Zacatecas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.7%, draw 26.1%, away 46.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.42 | 1.95 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.93 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.42 | 1.93 |
| Pinnacle | 3.41 | 3.76 | 2.03 |
| SBO | 3.02 | 3.13 | 2.01 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.25 ▲ +0.60
X
3.45 ▼ -0.31
2
1.95 ▼ -0.25
11 snapshots recorded, from .