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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 9

Piratas vs Venados FC

2 – 1 Full time

2′Ochoa Brandon
24′S. Lora
36′J. Gamboa
45′S. Saucedo
46′Ochoa BrandonJ. Reyes
46′M. TorresD. Tejeda
46′R. Gonzalez
52′F. Garcia
54′K. Y. Jaime Sanchez
58′J. A. Moreno VillegasE. Torres
59′F. GarciaC. Fernandez
63′J. Clemente
64′C. Fernandez
65′S. SaucedoJ. Cruz
72′S. NavedaK. Amador
76′O. Soto
77′D. Lajud MartinezI. Doumbouya
77′B. FigueroaG. Lopez
80′U. Garcia
84′O. SotoJ. Venegas
84′J. ClementeR. Palomares
87′A. Dominguez

Referee: E. A. Ramirez Gutierrez

Piratas 55%
Draw 24%
Venados FC 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Piratas vs Venados FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Piratas vs Venados FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPiratasDrawVenados FC
Model56.1%22.5%21.3%
Market54.9%24.1%20.9%
Final55.2%23.7%21.0%
Edge+1.2%-1.6%+0.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Piratas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.26.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Piratas ↓ / Venados FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 5% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Piratas and Venados FC expected goals

Piratas 2.12
Venados FC 1.26

Total expected goals: 3.39

Piratas and Venados FC attack and defence ratings

Piratas

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Venados FC

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Piratas vs Venados FC: result vs prediction

Piratas 2 – 1 Venados FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 9 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Piratas vs Venados FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Piratas 55.2% 1.81 +1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.8% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.1% 1.56 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.0% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.9% 2.28 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Piratas55.2%
Draw23.7%
Venados FC21.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.8%
Under 2.534.2%
Both teams to scoreYes64.1%
No35.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.0%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)44.8%
Handicap -1Piratas win34.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss43.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.0%
2-19.6%
2-07.6%

Piratas vs Venados FC stats

Piratas and Venados FC recent form

newest first
Piratas DWDLLW
Venados FC WLLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Piratas and Venados FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Piratas record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Venados FC record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Piratas vs Venados FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Piratas vs Venados FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 24.1%, away 20.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.63 3.78 4.39
Bet365 1.70 3.90 4.50
BetVictor 1.67 3.90 4.40
Betano 1.75 3.75 4.00
Betfair 1.60 4.00 4.40
Marathonbet 1.61 3.78 4.30
Pinnacle 1.70 4.13 4.44
SBO 1.60 3.61 4.02
William Hill 1.67 3.80 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▲ +0.10
X 3.80 ▼ -0.12
2 4.39 ▼ -0.33

11 snapshots recorded, from .