Liga de Expansión MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 9
Cancún
vs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3 – 0 Full time
| 17′ | A. Tecpanecatl | ||
| 29′ | J. Bustos | ||
| 29′ | K. Alvarez | ||
| 37′ | C. Trejo | ||
| 38′ | D. Guillen | ||
| 45′ | P. Villa | ||
| 46′ | A. ArredondoF. Melendre | ||
| 46′ | G. PreciadoA. Chavez | ||
| 46′ | P. VillaA. Justo | ||
| 54′ | F. Melendre | ||
| 56′ | D. Martinez | ||
| 59′ | P. UscangaL. Lopez | ||
| 71′ | K. Campos | ||
| 72′ | A. HernandezI. Barreda | ||
| 72′ | J. Rodriguez | ||
| 77′ | A. Arellano | ||
| 81′ | C. Trejo | ||
| 82′ | K. CamposC. Vela | ||
| 82′ | A. TecpanecatlB. Fadika | ||
| 82′ | D. CollazoJ. Gonzalez | ||
| 86′ | A. AlvarezC. Salaya De La Cruz | ||
| 86′ | D. MartinezW. Torres |
Cancún
58%
Draw
23%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
18%
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
| Probability | Cancún | Draw | Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.2% | 19.0% | 10.8% |
| Market | 54.5% | 25.0% | 20.6% |
| Final | 58.4% | 23.5% | 18.1% |
| Edge | +15.8% | -6.0% | -9.8% |
Why Cancún
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 0.82.
- The market prices Cancún below the model: +15.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Cancún and Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected goals
Cancún
2.33
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.82
Total expected goals: 3.15
Cancún and Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack and defence ratings
Cancún
Attack
1.15 +15%
Defence
0.87 -13%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Attack
0.81 -19%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: result vs prediction
Cancún 3 – 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 58.4% | 1.71 | +15.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cancún win | 48.0% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 58.4% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 18.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cancún win | 48.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 29.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 9.1% |
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca stats
Cancún and Alebrijes de Oaxaca recent form
| Cancún |
DDWLWW |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
WLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cancún and Alebrijes de Oaxaca going into this match
Cancún record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Cancún wins
2Draws
3Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Cancún | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-26 | Cancún | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-11 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-2 |
| 2024-01-17 | Cancún | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-0 |
| 2023-10-14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-5 |
| 2023-04-07 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-17 | Cancún | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
| 2022-01-06 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2021-11-10 | Cancún | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.8%, draw 25.1%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 3.65 | 4.43 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.65 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| SBO | 1.76 | 3.22 | 3.73 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.69 ▼ -0.17
X
3.67 ▲ +0.19
2
4.46 ▲ +0.71
6 snapshots recorded, from .