Tlaxcala
vs
Cancún
4 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | L. Ruiz | ||
| 19′ | E. Santos | ||
| 23′ | C. Trejo | ||
| 33′ | D. Alvarez | ||
| 38′ | C. Trejo | ||
| 46′ | B. FloresJ. Freyfeld | ||
| 58′ | E. Robles | ||
| 60′ | D. AlvarezM. Ramirez | ||
| 68′ | E. Robles | ||
| 75′ | F. MelendreG. Preciado | ||
| 75′ | L. RuizB. El-mesmari | ||
| 76′ | P. UscangaL. Lopez | ||
| 78′ | A. IniestraE. Hernandez | ||
| 79′ | K. CamposT. Gigena | ||
| 81′ | E. Garcia | ||
| 85′ | R. Reyes | ||
| 85′ | A. ChavezA. Arredondo | ||
| 87′ | M. Ramirez | ||
| 90′ | E. SantosC. Gonzalez | ||
| 90′ | E. Robles |
Tlaxcala vs Cancún overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tlaxcala vs Cancún
| Probability | Tlaxcala | Draw | Cancún |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.6% | 25.3% | 46.1% |
| Market | 40.2% | 27.4% | 32.3% |
| Final | 37.3% | 26.9% | 35.8% |
| Edge | -11.6% | -2.2% | +13.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tlaxcala and Cancún expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Tlaxcala and Cancún attack and defence ratings
Tlaxcala
Cancún
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tlaxcala vs Cancún: result vs prediction
Tlaxcala 4 – 1 Cancún
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tlaxcala vs Cancún markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 37.3% | 2.68 | -11.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 37.3% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Cancún | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tlaxcala win | 13.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.5% | |
| Loss | 71.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Tlaxcala vs Cancún stats
Tlaxcala and Cancún recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tlaxcala and Cancún going into this match
Tlaxcala record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 1 of 4 penalties (25%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cancún record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tlaxcala vs Cancún head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Tlaxcala | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Cancún | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Tlaxcala | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Cancún | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 5-2 |
| 2024-01-11 | Tlaxcala | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-07 | Cancún | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-08 | Tlaxcala | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-07-20 | Cancún | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-07 | Cancún | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2021-11-02 | Tlaxcala | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tlaxcala vs Cancún odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 27.4%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.28 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.28 | 2.74 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.55 | 2.90 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 3.04 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .