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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 10

Venados FC vs Monarcas

2 – 1 Full time

35′I. Dominguez
45′S. Lora
46′M. NamboJ. Van Rankin
46′M. DominguezA. Flores
56′A. AndradeJ. Martinez
57′D. Aguilar
59′S. Naveda
59′J. ReyesL. Arroyo
60′A. Flores
64′S. Lora
67′J. A. Moreno VillegasE. Torres
67′P. KilaniL. Macias
73′R. Lopez AburtoE. Castellanos
76′M. AguilarOchoa Brandon
83′J. Van Rankin
84′J. MartinezP. Romero
89′L. Arroyo
90′Ochoa Brandon
90′Venados FC

Estadio Carlos Iturralde RiveroReferee: E. H. Armenta J.

Venados FC 37%
Draw 25%
Monarcas 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Venados FC vs Monarcas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Venados FC vs Monarcas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVenados FCDrawMonarcas
Model40.6%24.3%35.1%
Market35.8%25.7%38.6%
Final37.0%25.3%37.7%
Edge+4.8%-1.4%-3.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Monarcas

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Venados FC ↓ / Monarcas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Venados FC and Monarcas expected goals

Venados FC 1.79
Monarcas 1.65

Total expected goals: 3.44

Venados FC and Monarcas attack and defence ratings

Venados FC

Attack 1.42 +42%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Monarcas

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Venados FC vs Monarcas: result vs prediction

Venados FC 2 – 1 Monarcas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 10 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Venados FC vs Monarcas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Monarcas 37.7% 2.65 -3.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.9% 1.49 — —
Both teams to score Yes 68.4% 1.46 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.0% 1.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Venados FC37.0%
Draw25.3%
Monarcas37.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%
Both teams to scoreYes68.4%
No31.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.3%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)63.0%
Handicap -1Monarcas win17.9%
Push (exactly one goal)17.1%
Loss65.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.4%
2-18.5%
1-27.8%

Venados FC vs Monarcas stats

Venados FC and Monarcas recent form

newest first
Venados FC LWLLWL
Monarcas WWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Venados FC and Monarcas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Venados FC record

  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.

Monarcas record

  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Venados FC vs Monarcas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Venados FC wins 3Draws 4Monarcas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-15MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2025-09-05Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-2
2025-03-03MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2024-09-14Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2024-03-29MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX3-4
2023-11-10MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2023-10-20Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2023-01-27MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2022-07-30Venados FCMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2022-04-07MonarcasVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Venados FC vs Monarcas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 25.7%, away 38.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.51 3.44 2.33
Bet365 2.70 3.60 2.45
BetVictor 2.55 3.60 2.40
Betano 2.52 3.45 2.47
Betfair 2.50 3.60 2.30
Marathonbet 2.51 3.44 2.33
Pinnacle 2.67 3.69 2.47
SBO 2.41 3.26 2.32
William Hill 2.50 3.50 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.51 ▲ +0.06
X 3.50 ▲ +0.02
2 2.33 ▼ -0.06

14 snapshots recorded, from .