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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 11

CA La Paz vs Venados FC

1 – 2 Full time

17′S. Lora
21′S. Lora
29′D. Hernandez
34′J. Reyes
43′M. Barragan
46′D. HernandezO. Millan
50′C. Robles
62′P. KilaniL. Macias
62′K. AmadorA. Dominguez
70′J. FerrerU. Jaimes
72′M. AguilarS. Saucedo
72′J. ReyesE. Torres
72′S. LoraM. Torres
75′S. Saucedo
77′U. Zurita JimenezR. Renteria
90′R. Renteria

Estadio Guaycura, La PazReferee: E. L. Sanchez M.

CA La Paz 61%
Draw 20%
Venados FC 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

CA La Paz vs Venados FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CA La Paz vs Venados FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCA La PazDrawVenados FC
Model67.1%17.1%15.8%
Market59.2%20.9%19.9%
Final61.2%19.9%18.9%
Edge+7.9%-3.8%-4.2%

Confidence: Low

Why CA La Paz

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 1.40.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices CA La Paz below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CA La Paz ↓ / Venados FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 2 6% 8% 6% 3 8% 4+ 8% 11% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 80%
No goals 2%

CA La Paz and Venados FC expected goals

CA La Paz 2.87
Venados FC 1.40

Total expected goals: 4.28

CA La Paz and Venados FC attack and defence ratings

CA La Paz

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Venados FC

Attack 1.44 +44%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

CA La Paz vs Venados FC: result vs prediction

CA La Paz 1 – 2 Venados FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

CA La Paz vs Venados FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CA La Paz 61.2% 1.63 +7.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 79.9% 1.25 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.7% 1.39 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.1% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 CA La Paz win 48.1% 2.08 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CA La Paz61.2%
Draw19.9%
Venados FC18.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579.9%
Under 2.520.1%
Both teams to scoreYes71.7%
No28.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.1%
12 (either side)80.1%
X2 (draw or away)38.8%
Handicap -1CA La Paz win48.1%
Push (exactly one goal)19.1%
Loss32.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.1%
3-17.7%
1-16.2%

CA La Paz vs Venados FC stats

CA La Paz and Venados FC recent form

newest first
CA La Paz WWDWWD
Venados FC WLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CA La Paz and Venados FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

CA La Paz record

  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.

Venados FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CA La Paz vs Venados FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5CA La Paz wins 2Draws 3Venados FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-31CA La PazVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2025-08-23Venados FCCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX3-3
2025-02-08Venados FCCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2024-08-24CA La PazVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2024-04-27Venados FCCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX2-3
2024-04-25CA La PazVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX3-1
2024-04-10CA La PazVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2023-11-12Venados FCCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2023-08-12Venados FCCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX1-3
2023-03-29CA La PazVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

CA La Paz vs Venados FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.2%, draw 20.9%, away 19.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.58 5.08 4.56
Bet365 1.60 4.33 4.75
BetVictor 1.55 4.50 4.60
Betano 1.57 4.20 4.65
Betfair 1.53 4.40 4.60
Marathonbet 1.50 4.33 4.55
Pinnacle 1.56 4.62 4.87
SBO 1.53 4.05 4.06
William Hill 1.55 4.40 4.33

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.55 ▲ +0.02
X 4.40 ▲ +0.15
2 4.60 ▼ -0.15

10 snapshots recorded, from .