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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 11

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados

6 – 3 Full time

4′L. Razo
22′A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago
37′L. Razo
37′G. Padilla
46′A. FloresE. Gutierrez
46′B. OrdoricaJ. Rengifo
61′D. Osuna
63′D. GuajardoF. Contreras
68′S. A. Hernandez
69′J. PerezJ. Brigido
69′A. De Jesus Bravo SantiagoA. Carreon
74′L. VargasO. Coronel
77′J. Marchand
78′G. PadillaA. Egana
82′J. EscalanteM. Nuno
82′S. A. HernandezJ. Cazares
82′L. RazoK. Loera
83′O. Coronel
88′O. Coronel
90′O. Gil
90′J. Aguayo

Estadio Jalisco, GuadalajaraReferee: D. S. Perez Borja

Leones Negros UDG 58%
Draw 23%
Dorados 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLeones Negros UDGDrawDorados
Model56.0%23.8%20.3%
Market58.4%22.9%18.7%
Final57.8%23.1%19.1%
Edge-2.4%+0.9%+1.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Leones Negros UDG

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.12.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Leones Negros ↓ / Dorados → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 11% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Leones Negros UDG and Dorados expected goals

Leones Negros UDG 1.96
Dorados 1.12

Total expected goals: 3.08

Leones Negros UDG and Dorados attack and defence ratings

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Dorados

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados: result vs prediction

Leones Negros UDG 6 – 3 Dorados

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leones Negros UDG 57.8% 1.73 -2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.5% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.9% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.9% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.0% 2.27 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Leones Negros UDG57.8%
Draw23.1%
Dorados19.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%
Both teams to scoreYes58.9%
No41.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.9%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)42.2%
Handicap -1Leones Negros UDG win33.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss44.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-19.9%
2-08.8%

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados stats

Leones Negros UDG and Dorados recent form

newest first
Leones Negros UDG WLDWDW
Dorados LDDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Leones Negros UDG and Dorados going into this match

league record before kick-off

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.

Dorados record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8Leones Negros UDG wins 2Draws 0Dorados wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15DoradosLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2025-10-05Leones Negros UDGDoradosLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-01-19Leones Negros UDGDoradosLiga de Expansión MX4-0
2024-08-04DoradosLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2024-03-21DoradosLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX1-2
2023-09-15Leones Negros UDGDoradosLiga de Expansión MX4-0
2023-04-21Leones Negros UDGDoradosLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2022-09-29DoradosLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2022-01-31DoradosLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2021-08-13Leones Negros UDGDoradosLiga de Expansión MX0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.4%, draw 22.9%, away 18.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.60 4.58 4.88
Bet365 1.60 4.10 5.00
BetVictor 1.55 4.10 5.00
Betano 1.60 4.00 4.75
Betfair 1.53 4.00 5.00
Marathonbet 1.52 3.94 4.85
Pinnacle 1.61 4.24 5.07
William Hill 1.57 3.90 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.58 ▼ -0.09
X 4.05 ▲ +0.15
2 4.94 ▲ +0.95

14 snapshots recorded, from .