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Liga de Expansión MX · ·Apertura - 12

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG

Garuda Lions Prediction: Venados FC

2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability

Bet on Venados FC

Estadio Carlos Iturralde RiveroReferee: A. Rodriguez

Venados FC 49%
Draw 23%
Leones Negros UDG 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Venados FC wins
49%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
80%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
7% of simulated outcomes

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVenados FCDrawLeones Negros UDG
Model53.5%19.3%27.2%
Market47.7%24.1%28.2%
Final49.2%22.9%27.9%
Edge+5.8%-4.8%-1.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Venados FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.92.
  • The market prices Venados FC below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG match preview

In the upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, Venados FC faces Leones Negros UDG, with model probabilities favoring Venados FC at 57%, while Leones Negros UDG stands at 23% and a draw at 20%. The expected goals indicate a strong offensive performance from Venados FC, projected at 2.45 compared to Leones Negros UDG's 1.56. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability.

Both teams have shown a mix of form recently, with Venados FC recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Leones Negros UDG has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 76%, and both teams scoring is projected at 73%. The head-to-head results from their last two encounters show each team with one win.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Venados FC ↓ / Leones Negros → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 4% 3 6% 6% 4+ 4% 8% 7% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 83%
No goals 2%

Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG expected goals

Venados FC 2.66
Leones Negros UDG 1.92

Total expected goals: 4.58

Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG attack and defence ratings

Venados FC

Attack 1.44 +44%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Apertura - 12 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Venados FC 49.2% 2.03 +5.8% 1.98
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83.5% 1.20 — —
Both teams to score Yes 79.9% 1.25 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.1% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.5% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Venados FC49.2%
Draw22.9%
Leones Negros UDG27.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583.5%
Under 2.516.5%
Both teams to scoreYes79.9%
No20.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.1%
12 (either side)77.1%
X2 (draw or away)50.8%
Handicap -1Venados FC win35.1%
Push (exactly one goal)18.4%
Loss46.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.0%
2-26.7%
3-16.2%
Compare prices for this pick

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG stats

Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG recent form

newest first
Venados FC WWLWLL
Leones Negros UDG WWLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG season so far

league record

Venados FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Venados FC wins 2Draws 5Leones Negros UDG wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2025-11-02Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2025-04-19Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX3-1
2024-11-02Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX3-0
2024-01-25Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2023-08-17Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX4-1
2023-04-05Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2022-10-29Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX3-0
2022-10-26Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2022-08-08Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.7%, draw 24.1%, away 28.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.90 3.72 3.22
Bet365 1.91 3.80 3.60
BetVictor 1.90 3.90 3.30
Betano 1.98 3.75 3.15
Betfair 1.91 3.80 3.10
Dafabet 1.98 3.85 3.30
Marathonbet 1.88 3.72 3.15
Pinnacle 1.93 3.93 3.36
SBO 1.91 3.32 2.90
William Hill 1.85 3.75 3.25
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 —
X 3.77 ▲ +0.02
2 3.24 ▼ -0.01

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Venados FC Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now