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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 12

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG

1 – 1 Full time

60′K. AmadorA. Dominguez
66′L. RazoK. Loera
73′P. KilaniE. Torres
77′J. BrigidoJ. Perez
77′A. De Jesus Bravo SantiagoA. Carreon
79′J. Reyes
83′O. Gil
85′O. GilJ. Cazares
87′D. TejedaOchoa Brandon
87′J. ReyesL. Macias
87′M. AguilarM. Torres

Estadio Carlos Iturralde RiveroReferee: A. Rodriguez

Venados FC 49%
Draw 23%
Leones Negros UDG 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVenados FCDrawLeones Negros UDG
Model53.2%19.4%27.5%
Market47.3%24.2%28.5%
Final48.8%23.0%28.2%
Edge+1.5%-1.2%-0.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Venados FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.92.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Venados FC ↓ / Leones Negros → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 4% 3 6% 6% 4+ 4% 8% 7% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 83%
No goals 2%

Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG expected goals

Venados FC 2.64
Leones Negros UDG 1.92

Total expected goals: 4.56

Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG attack and defence ratings

Venados FC

Attack 1.43 +43%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG: result vs prediction

Venados FC 1 – 1 Leones Negros UDG

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 12 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Venados FC 48.8% 2.05 +1.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83.4% 1.20 — —
Both teams to score Yes 79.9% 1.25 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.8% 2.14 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Venados FC48.8%
Draw23.0%
Leones Negros UDG28.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583.4%
Under 2.516.6%
Both teams to scoreYes79.9%
No20.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.8%
12 (either side)77.0%
X2 (draw or away)51.2%
Handicap -1Venados FC win34.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.4%
Loss46.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.0%
2-26.7%
3-16.1%

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG stats

Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG recent form

newest first
Venados FC WWLWLL
Leones Negros UDG WWLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Venados FC and Leones Negros UDG going into this match

league record before kick-off

Venados FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Venados FC wins 2Draws 5Leones Negros UDG wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2025-11-02Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2025-04-19Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX3-1
2024-11-02Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX3-0
2024-01-25Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2023-08-17Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX4-1
2023-04-05Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2022-10-29Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX3-0
2022-10-26Venados FCLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2022-08-08Leones Negros UDGVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX4-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 24.2%, away 28.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.90 3.72 3.22
Bet365 1.95 3.80 3.50
BetVictor 1.93 3.80 3.25
Betano 2.02 3.70 3.10
Betfair 1.91 3.80 3.10
Dafabet 2.03 3.80 3.20
Marathonbet 1.88 3.72 3.15
Pinnacle 1.96 3.98 3.38
SBO 1.93 3.41 2.96
William Hill 1.85 3.75 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.93 ▲ +0.02
X 3.77 ▲ +0.02
2 3.21 ▼ -0.04

12 snapshots recorded, from .