Leones Negros UDG
vs
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leones Negros UDG
3 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
| Probability | Leones Negros UDG | Draw | Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81.5% | 12.3% | 6.2% |
| Market | 68.9% | 18.5% | 12.7% |
| Final | 72.0% | 16.9% | 11.1% |
| Edge | +12.6% | -6.2% | -6.4% |
Why Leones Negros UDG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.13 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leones Negros UDG below the model: +12.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca match preview
Leones Negros UDG enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 71%, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca has a significantly lower chance of 12%. The expected goals for Leones Negros UDG stand at 3.13, indicating a potent attacking threat, whereas Alebrijes de Oaxaca is projected to score only 0.84 goals. Recent form shows Leones Negros UDG with a mixed record of D-W-W-L-D-W, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca has struggled, recording W-L-L-L-W-L.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-0, with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are expected to score only 55% of the time. In their last two encounters, Leones Negros UDG has yet to secure a win against Alebrijes de Oaxaca, who holds one victory and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leones Negros UDG and Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.97
Leones Negros UDG and Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack and defence ratings
Leones Negros UDG
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 72.0% | 1.39 | +12.6% | 1.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.9% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Leones Negros UDG win | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 72.0% |
| Draw | 16.9% | |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones Negros UDG win | 64.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 18.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 9.6% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | |
| 3-1 | 8.1% |
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca stats
Leones Negros UDG and Alebrijes de Oaxaca recent form
| Leones Negros UDG |
DWWLDW |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
WLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leones Negros UDG and Alebrijes de Oaxaca season so far
Leones Negros UDG record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Leones Negros UDG | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Leones Negros UDG | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-29 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2024-02-15 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-3 |
| 2023-08-04 | Leones Negros UDG | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 5-0 |
| 2023-03-15 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2022-06-26 | Leones Negros UDG | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
| 2022-01-20 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2021-08-29 | Leones Negros UDG | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.4%, draw 18.2%, away 12.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 4.85 | 7.34 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.32 | 5.00 | 7.30 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.31 | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 4.85 | 7.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.10 | 6.99 |
| SBO | 1.28 | 4.62 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .