Alebrijes de Oaxaca
vs
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
| Probability | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Draw | Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.2% | 28.6% | 35.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.2% | 28.6% | 35.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alebrijes de Oaxaca
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo match preview
Alebrijes de Oaxaca will face Cruz Azul Hidalgo in a closely contested match, with the 1X2 probabilities indicating a slight edge for Alebrijes at 36%, compared to 35% for Cruz Azul Hidalgo, while a draw stands at 29%. The expected goals suggest a tight encounter, with Alebrijes projected at 1.34 and Cruz Azul at 1.31. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Alebrijes, occurring at an 8% probability.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Alebrijes recording a W-L-L-L-W-L streak and Cruz Azul Hidalgo showing W-D-L-L-D-L. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 49%, and there is a 55% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Cruz Azul Hidalgo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Cruz Azul Hidalgo attack and defence ratings
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 36.2% | 2.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 36.2% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% |
| No | 44.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca win | 16.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 63.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-0 | 8.3% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo stats
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Cruz Azul Hidalgo recent form
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
WLLLWL |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
WDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Cruz Azul Hidalgo season so far
Alebrijes de Oaxaca record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Cruz Azul Hidalgo record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.