Venados FC
vs
Durango
Garuda Lions Prediction: Venados FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Venados FC vs Durango overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Venados FC vs Durango
| Probability | Venados FC | Draw | Durango |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.0% | 27.9% | 33.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.0% | 27.9% | 33.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Venados FC vs Durango match preview
Venados FC faces Durango in an upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Venados FC has a 39% chance of winning, while Durango stands at 33%, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Venados FC, with a probability of 9%.
In terms of expected goals, Venados FC is projected to score 1.44, while Durango is forecasted to net 1.31. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 52%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 57%. Recent form shows Venados FC with two draws and three wins in their last six matches, while Durango has three wins and one draw in their last six outings. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Venados FC and Durango expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.75
Venados FC and Durango attack and defence ratings
Venados FC
Durango
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Venados FC vs Durango markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venados FC | 39.0% | 2.56 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venados FC | 39.0% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Durango | 33.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Venados FC win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 61.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.0% |
Venados FC vs Durango stats
Venados FC and Durango recent form
| Venados FC |
DDWWLW |
| Durango |
WDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Venados FC and Durango season so far
Venados FC record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Durango record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.