Tepatitlán
vs
Cancún
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cancún
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Tepatitlán vs Cancún overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tepatitlán vs Cancún
| Probability | Tepatitlán | Draw | Cancún |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.7% | 22.9% | 55.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.7% | 22.9% | 55.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cancún
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Tepatitlán vs Cancún match preview
Tepatitlán faces Cancún in a Liga de Expansión MX match where the probabilities suggest a challenging encounter for the home side. Tepatitlán has a 22% chance of winning, while Cancún leads with a 55% probability. Recent form shows Tepatitlán struggling, with their last six matches resulting in one win and five losses, whereas Cancún has been more consistent, recording two wins and four draws in their last six outings.
The expected goals indicate a competitive match, with Tepatitlán forecasted to score 1.25 and Cancún 2.07. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score. Historically, Tepatitlán has not won against Cancún in their last two meetings, with one draw and one loss.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tepatitlán and Cancún expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Tepatitlán and Cancún attack and defence ratings
Tepatitlán
Cancún
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tepatitlán vs Cancún markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tepatitlán | 21.7% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Cancún | 55.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cancún win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
Tepatitlán vs Cancún stats
Tepatitlán and Cancún recent form
| Tepatitlán |
LDWLLL |
| Cancún |
DWLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tepatitlán and Cancún season so far
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.
Cancún record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Tepatitlán vs Cancún head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Cancún | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Tepatitlán | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.