Tapatío
vs
Monarcas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monarcas
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Monarcas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tapatío vs Monarcas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tapatío vs Monarcas
| Probability | Tapatío | Draw | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.3% | 25.1% | 35.6% |
| Market | 32.2% | 26.5% | 41.3% |
| Final | 34.0% | 26.2% | 39.8% |
| Edge | +1.8% | -0.4% | -1.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (our 39.8% × 2.32 − 1).
Tapatío vs Monarcas match preview
Tapatío faces Monarcas in an intriguing Liga de Expansión MX matchup. According to our model, Tapatío has a 34% chance of winning, while Monarcas is favored at 40%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2 in favor of Monarcas, with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals projected at 64% and both teams to score at 66%.
In terms of recent form, Tapatío has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Monarcas has shown improvement with two wins, two draws, and a loss in the same period. The expected goals for Tapatío stand at 1.69, slightly higher than Monarcas' 1.58, indicating a competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tapatío and Monarcas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Tapatío and Monarcas attack and defence ratings
Tapatío
Monarcas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tapatío vs Monarcas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 39.8% | 2.51 | -1.4% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 34.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Monarcas | 39.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% |
| No | 34.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 64.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Tapatío vs Monarcas stats
Tapatío and Monarcas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tapatío and Monarcas season so far
Tapatío record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Monarcas record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tapatío vs Monarcas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Tapatío | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Monarcas | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tapatío vs Monarcas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.2%, draw 26.5%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.42 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 2.76 | 3.42 | 2.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.87 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| SBO | 2.59 | 3.17 | 2.13 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .