CDS Tampico Madero
vs
CA La Paz
Garuda Lions Prediction: CA La Paz
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — CA La Paz is the favourite, not a value bet.
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz
| Probability | CDS Tampico Madero | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.4% | 25.8% | 42.8% |
| Market | 36.4% | 26.0% | 37.6% |
| Final | 35.1% | 26.0% | 38.9% |
| Edge | -1.3% | -0.0% | +1.3% |
Why CA La Paz
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.2% per unit staked (our 38.9% × 2.60 − 1).
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz match preview
CDS Tampico Madero faces CA La Paz in a Liga de Expansión MX match with a kickoff time of 2026-10-25T02:00:00Z UTC. The model indicates a 35% probability for a Tampico Madero victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 39% likelihood for a CA La Paz win. The expected goals are 1.42 for Tampico Madero and 1.67 for CA La Paz, suggesting a competitive encounter.
In terms of recent form, CDS Tampico Madero has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while CA La Paz has two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same period. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CDS Tampico Madero and CA La Paz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
CDS Tampico Madero and CA La Paz attack and defence ratings
CDS Tampico Madero
CA La Paz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 38.9% | 2.57 | +1.3% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CDS Tampico Madero | 35.1% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| CA La Paz | 38.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz stats
CDS Tampico Madero and CA La Paz recent form
| CDS Tampico Madero |
WDLLDL |
| CA La Paz |
DWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CDS Tampico Madero and CA La Paz season so far
CDS Tampico Madero record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | CA La Paz | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-23 | CDS Tampico Madero | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-28 | CA La Paz | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | CDS Tampico Madero | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-23 | CDS Tampico Madero | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-07 | CA La Paz | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.5%, draw 25.9%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.65 | 2.49 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.65 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.35 | 3.24 | 2.29 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .