Dorados
vs
Piratas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Piratas
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Piratas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Dorados vs Piratas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dorados vs Piratas
| Probability | Dorados | Draw | Piratas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.5% | 24.2% | 37.3% |
| Market | 22.5% | 24.0% | 53.6% |
| Final | 26.5% | 24.0% | 49.5% |
| Edge | +4.0% | +0.1% | -4.1% |
Why Piratas
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (our 49.5% × 1.75 − 1).
Dorados vs Piratas match preview
In the upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, Dorados face Piratas with a probability of 26% for a Dorados win, 24% for a draw, and 50% for a Piratas victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Both teams show a strong tendency to score, with our model indicating a 69% chance that both will find the net, while the expectation for over 2.5 goals stands at 68%.
Recent form highlights a mixed performance for both teams; Dorados have recorded one win in their last six matches (W-L-L-L-D-D), while Piratas have fared slightly better with three wins in their last six (W-L-W-L-W-D). The expected goals for Dorados is 1.76, closely followed by Piratas at 1.72, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dorados and Piratas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Dorados and Piratas attack and defence ratings
Dorados
Piratas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dorados vs Piratas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 49.5% | 2.02 | -4.1% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dorados | 26.5% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Piratas | 49.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% |
| No | 31.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win | 19.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 62.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Dorados vs Piratas stats
Dorados and Piratas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dorados and Piratas season so far
Dorados record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Piratas record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dorados vs Piratas head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Dorados vs Piratas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.5%, draw 24.0%, away 53.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.04 | 3.80 | 1.68 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.80 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.70 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Marathonbet | 3.95 | 3.80 | 1.66 |
| Pinnacle | 4.26 | 3.99 | 1.74 |
| SBO | 3.76 | 3.46 | 1.63 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .