Durango
vs
Monarcas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Durango
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.98.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Durango vs Monarcas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Durango vs Monarcas
| Probability | Durango | Draw | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.1% | 28.0% | 22.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.1% | 28.0% | 22.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Durango
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Durango vs Monarcas match preview
Durango enters this match with a probability of 52% to win against Monarcas, who have a 21% chance of securing a victory. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of Durango, with this outcome having an 11% probability. In terms of expected goals, Durango is projected to score 1.61, while Monarcas is expected to net 0.94.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Durango recording three wins in their last five matches, while Monarcas has two wins in the same period. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 47%, and there is a 50% chance that both teams will score. Overall, the confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Durango and Monarcas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Durango and Monarcas attack and defence ratings
Durango
Monarcas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Durango vs Monarcas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 49.1% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Monarcas | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Durango win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 50.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-0 | 9.5% |
Durango vs Monarcas stats
Durango and Monarcas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Durango and Monarcas season so far
Durango record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Monarcas record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.